Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, the leader of the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is positioning himself as the future figurehead in Syria after Bashar al-Assad.
Without his group’s sudden and devastating advance into Hama and Homs from its power base in Aleppo and then the northwestern province of Idlib, there is little doubt that the tumultuous events of the past week and a half would not have happened.
But other rebel groups also rose up – and it was probably the feeling of changing the entire Syrian regime that led to its rapid collapse.
Among these groups – some now in Damascus – are rebel factions that once operated under the banner of the Free Syrian Army from southern towns and cities that had been dormant for years, but from which the spark of rebellion had never been fully extinguished. .
In the east, Kurdish-led forces have taken advantage of the collapse of the Syrian army to take full control of the central city of Deir Ezzor. In the vast Syrian desert, remnants of the so-called Islamic State may also look to take advantage of the situation. And far north along the Turkish border, the Syrian National Army – backed by Ankara – could also be a key player in what happens next.
Al-Jolani has spent years trying to change the perception of his organization from one that fears its ideological fervor would be accepted by Syrians as a practical alternative to the Assad regime. .
HTS was founded under a different name, Jabhat al-NusraAs a direct affiliate of al-Qaeda in 2011.
The head of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) group, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.was also involved in its formation.
It was considered the most effective and deadly of the groups active against President Assad.
It was – and remains – banned as a terrorist group by the United Nations, the United States, Turkey and other countries.
But al-Jolani publicly broke ranks with al-Qaeda, disbanding Jabhat al-Nusra and forming a new organization, called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) when it merged with several other similar groups a year later. Merged.
There were doubts at the time — and some still remain — whether HTS had completely renounced its links with al-Qaeda. But his message over the past week and a half has been one of inclusiveness and a rejection of violence or revenge.
The group has been involved in internecine conflicts with other rebel and opposition groups in the past. This may happen again.
The end of President Assad’s rule will in no way alter the divisions within Syria, where various groups have formed different factions outside the government’s control. Occupied areas.
HTS’s efforts to gain legitimacy have also been marred by alleged human rights abuses.
How Syria’s immediate political future develops will depend not only on the organization’s intentions and capabilities, but also on the competing claims and pressures of other groups, but also on whether major external powers, the most powerful in the country’s recent history, have been more closely involved. will play
These include notably Iran and Russia – which have backed President Assad – and Turkey – which has supported rebel groups – as well as the US, which is still in the Kurdish-held area in the east of the country. A military presence is maintained.
They are now playing catch-up, as they try to chart a new strategic path to serve their interests after the fall of the Assad dynasty.