What is happening in northwestern Syria and why now?

Rebel forces have launched their biggest offensive against the Syrian government in years.

After the Syrian army quickly withdrew its troops, they have taken control of the northwest of the country, including much of the second city of Aleppo.

The rebels are now fighting the army near the central city of Hama, while Russia, the regime’s main ally, is carrying out airstrikes against them.

A peaceful, pro-democracy uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in 2011 turned into a full-scale civil war that devastated the country and drew in regional and global powers.

More than half a million people have been killed and 12 million have been forced to flee their homes, of which nearly 5 million are refugees or asylum seekers abroad.

Before the rebel offensive, the war looked like Bashar al-Assad’s government had regained control of the cities with the help of Russia, Iran and Iranian-backed militias. However, large parts of the country are outside the direct control of the government.

These include northern and eastern areas controlled by a Kurdish-led coalition of US-backed armed groups.

The last remaining rebel stronghold is in the northwestern provinces of Aleppo and Idlib, which border Turkey and are home to more than four million people, many of whom are displaced.

The northwest is dominated by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), but Turkish-backed rebel factions – known as the Syrian National Army (SNA) – also control territory there with the help of Turkish troops. Have control.

HTS was founded in 2012 under a different name, the Nusra Front, and pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda the following year.

Al-Nusra Front was considered the most effective and deadly of the groups active against President Assad. But his jihadist ideology appeared to be his driving force rather than revolutionary fervor – and at the time he was seen at odds with a rebel coalition known as the Free Syrian Army.

In 2016, al-Nusra severed ties with al-Qaeda and a year later merged with other factions to form Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. However, the United Nations, the United States, the United Kingdom, and several other countries consider HTS to be affiliated with al-Qaeda and are often referred to as the Nusra Front.

HTS consolidated its power in Idlib and Aleppo provinces by crushing its rivals, including al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS) group cells, and established the so-called Syrian Salvation Government to take over the territory.

The ultimate goal of HTS is to topple Assad and establish Islamic rule. But he has shown little sign of trying to reignite the wider conflict and renew his challenge to Assad’s rule – until now.

For years, Idlib remained a battleground as Syrian government forces tried to regain control.

But in 2020, Turkey and Russia brokered a ceasefire to stop the government’s push to retake Idlib. Despite sporadic fighting, the ceasefire largely held.

In October, the U.N.’s special envoy for Syria said HTS had carried out a significant raid in government-held areas, Russia had resumed airstrikes for the first time in months, and pro-government forces had used drones. Attacks and shelling have significantly intensified.

On Wednesday, HTS and allied groups said they had launched an offensive to “stop the aggression”, accusing the government and ally Iran-backed militias of escalating tensions in the northwest.

But it came at a time when the Syrian government and its allies were engaged in other conflicts.

The Iranian-backed Lebanese organization Hezbollah, which was instrumental in helping Assad push back rebels in the early years of the war, has recently been the victim of Israeli aggression in Lebanon, while Israeli strikes have targeted Iranian troops in Syria. Eliminated commanders and disrupted supply lines to supporters. – There, the government militia Russia is also worried about the war in Ukraine.

Without them, Assad’s forces are left exposed.

President Assad has vowed to “crush” the rebels, calling them “terrorists”.

In a call with his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pyzhashkian on Monday, he blamed the US and other Western countries for the aggression, saying they were trying to “remap” the region.

Pyzhashkian stressed that Iran “stands firmly by the side of the Syrian government and people” and that protecting Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is the main pillar of its regional strategy.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia also views the situation around Aleppo as an “attack on Syria’s sovereignty,” and that it is “in favor of the Syrian authorities to establish peace in the region and quickly Restore constitutional order as soon as possible”.

The US, Britain, France and Germany – which oppose Assad – issued a joint statement on Monday calling for “de-escalation by all sides and the protection of civilians and infrastructure to prevent further displacement and Blocking humanitarian access can be prevented.”

He also called for a “Syrian-led political solution to the conflict” as outlined in a 2015 UN Security Council resolution.

On Saturday, White House National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett said Assad’s refusal to engage in the political process and his “reliance on Russia and Iran” had created the “situation we’re seeing now.”

He also insisted that “the US has nothing to do with this attack”.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan also said that “it would be a mistake to try to explain what is happening in Syria at this time through any foreign intervention” and called on the Syrian government to “reconcile with its people and the legitimate opposition”. demanded.