What if TikTok gets banned?

TikTok will be banned in the US on January 19 – unless the Supreme Court accepts one. Last ditch legal bid from It would be unconstitutional for its Chinese owner, ByteDance, to do so.

But even if the nation’s highest judicial authority agrees with lower courts — and Congress — that the platform poses a threat to national security, will that actually stop Americans from using it?

Will there be ways to circumvent the ban — or could President-elect Donald Trump find a way to block a law he says he opposes, even if the courts uphold it?

And whatever happens with TikTok, who benefits from the uncertainty surrounding its future?

The most likely way for the US to ban TikTok is to order app stores, such as the Google Play Store and Apple’s App Store, to ban it from the region. Cannot be made available for download.

US lawmakers have already told tech firms to be prepared to remove the app from their stores if the ban goes into effect.

This will mean that people can no longer use any legitimate means to access TikTok – although it will also mean that people who already have it will still be on their phones.

Since the app will no longer be publicly available, new updates will no longer be delivered to users in the US – making the app even worse and eventually unusable.

Not to mention that many updates are provided to fix security holes in the apps, so if TikTok stops receiving updates that could target hackers with millions of devices.

Of course, there are ways around such restrictions.

There are already a number of videos circulating on TikTok that tell users about using a VPN (virtual private network) – a way to make it appear as if you’re in another region.

The region of app stores can also be changed on most devices, so anyone can theoretically access apps from other countries – although this can cause other problems, such as breaking service agreements. Not to mention the possibility.

It’s also possible to modify and install apps downloaded from the Internet on a device – which can break copyright laws – and comes with its own risks. However, the government has also taken this into account, hence the proposal to ban “internet hosting services” from giving people access to the app.

So if the ban takes shape, it looks like those who are determined to use TikTok once it’s implemented will be able to do so — but it won’t be the experience they’re used to. are

Down the road the government still has other avenues available — for example, after India banned TikTok in 2020, it ordered internet providers to block access to the app altogether.

And even if people use a VPN, TikTok could theoretically look at a user’s device and identify if their mobile number starts with +1, to determine if they are based in the US, and can then simply present them with a screen that says app. Not available in their country.

It remains to be seen whether TikTok will decide to help the government with its ban – but Reuters is reporting that it plans to do so.

TikTok’s own lawyer told the Supreme Court that he believed the app would “go into obscurity” in the US unless it ruled in its favour.

The complexity of the problem means that even experts are unclear about what happens next.

Georgia Institute of Technology professor Milton L. Miller — who filed a legal brief in support of TikTok — said there was a lack of clarity about how far the U.S. could extend its authority to enforce the law. Know what technically happens if a ban occurs. It is difficult to determine.

But what was clear, he said, was the impact it would have on consumers and the Internet.

“It would legitimize the distribution of the Internet with purely national or jurisdictional boundaries,” he said.

Trump has made it clear he doesn’t want the law to go into effect, asking the Supreme Court to delay its implementation while he looks for a “political solution.”

But, should the justices uphold it, Trump does not have the power to overturn the law, which would take effect the day before he returns to office.

But he could simply tell the Justice Department not to enforce it.

The government would effectively tell Apple and Google that they would not be penalized for continuing to allow access to TikTok, meaning the law would remain in place but essentially be useless.

Obviously, firms may be uncomfortable breaking the law even if they’re told it’s OK—because that would effectively require them to accept the president’s word that they don’t face punishment. Will have to.

TikTok says it has 170 million users in the US who spend an average of 51 minutes a day on the app in 2024.

Ban TikTok or make it less usable and it creates a huge opportunity for its big tech rivals, says Jasmine Enberg, an analyst at Insider Intelligence.

“Meta-owned Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts, owned by Google, are a natural fit for displaced users, creators and advertisers,” she says.

Facebook could also benefit, though Ms. Enberg says, in common with all meta-platforms, Controversial policy changes Boss Mark Zuckerberg announced that its appeal could potentially be understated.

Users bring advertisers – so a ban could be a big financial boost for these platforms.

“Chief marketing officers we spoke to confirmed that if they could no longer advertise on TikTok, they would divert their media dollars to Meta and Google – the same behavior we’ve seen in India. I saw when they banned Tik Tok in 2020″. Principal Analyst Kelsey Checkering.

Lemon8, which is also owned by ByteDance, would have been an obvious place for people to go after the ban — but the law also applies to other apps owned or operated by the firm. This means that Lemon 8 will probably also face being made inaccessible in the US.

Other potential winners include Twitch, which made its name hosting live streams — a popular feature on TikTok. Twitch is particularly popular for gaming, although it continues to grow with other content.

Other Chinese-owned platforms, Like Xiaohongshu – known as RedNote to its American users – has seen rapid growth in the US and UK.

Still, some suggest that none of the existing apps can truly replace TikTok, especially its feature TikTok Shop, which lets users buy products directly from videos, and is a huge hit for American creators. Earn more money.

Craig Atkinson, CEO of digital marketing agency Code3, said there is no direct competitor that people can easily switch to — and notes His agency is signing new contracts with clients to create TikTok Shop campaigns by the end of December.

So far, ByteDance is adamant that no sale of its prize assets in the US is on the table.

But could that change if it is indeed banned — and when a president who prides himself on “the art of the deal” returns to the White House?

The line-up continues to potential buyers – with Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday Although the firm was considering a sale to billionaire Elon Musk. TikTok has since explained it. As “pure fiction”.

Former Trump Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and billionaire businessman Frank McCourt are among those who have previously expressed interest in buying it.

Mr. McCourt, the former owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers baseball team, said he had secured $20 billion in verbal commitments from a consortium of investors to bid for TikTok.

Even more left-field is the – and considerably less serious – proposed owner.

World’s Biggest YouTuber MrBeast has claimed that he is now in the running for a deal. Billionaires then approached him about it.

While it may sound like a joke, he has a significant financial incentive to try and save the app – MrBeast has over 100 million followers on TikTok.