Trump voters may increase holiday spending, while Harris supporters may push back.

CNBC analyzed shipping trends in red and blue states and spoke with shoppers in Texas, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, North Carolina and Virginia to better understand what’s going on. 2024 Presidential Election Results May affect the holiday shopping season.

Those who voted for President-elect Donald Trump were more positive about the future of the economy, while supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris were more pessimistic, worried that the incoming president’s policies Make things difficult on the middle class. In a world where emotions drive purchasing decisions, these differences in opinion could shape how much people spend this holiday season.

For example, Harris voter Amanda Davila, a 30-year-old educator from New York City, told CNBC that she plans to spend less on vacations this year and about spending in the lead-up to Trump’s inauguration. I am “trying to be more careful”. January

“I’m worried about my student loans and whether things will get out of hand, how much I’ll owe if I do a savings plan. [for student loan repayment] Moves and things like that,” Davila said. “It’s hard being a millennial and having to worry about buying a house, groceries, rent, all that stuff. With our income, it’s not enough for everything these days.”

Meanwhile, Trump voter Armando Duarte, a 62-year-old retired utility worker from Fort Lee, New Jersey, told CNBC that he feels much better about the holiday shopping season since Trump won.

“I’m optimistic that people will feel a little more motivated to spend because they can feel that the economy is recovering and coming back,” Duarte said. “I think things are really going to get better… I think inflation is going to come down. Jobs are good, but they’re going to get a lot better, and hopefully wages are going to go up, and people will only be able to survive basically.”

In the months leading up to the 2024 election, Retailers worried On whether that would hurt sales and the most important holiday season, which was already facing a bleak outlook due to the short time between Thanksgiving and Christmas, Among other challenges. Many companies Cautionary guidance issued For the last half of the year, there were fears that elections would be held. Distracting consumers from shopping Or a manufactured election certification process will lead to unrest and reduced sales.

However, now that Trump has won, it looks like the election result could boost sales — at least in many parts of the country — because his supporters largely believe that economic conditions will improve under his leadership. will be If people are feeling better about the economy, that means they will spend more, experts said.

“If they feel optimistic about what’s to come, they’re willing to spend more, even if it’s on a credit card, knowing or expecting that they’ll have the money to pay it back. There will be money,” said Meyer Statman, an expert in behavioral finance and a professor at Santa Clara University’s Levy School of Business. “So the general optimism of Republicans, on the whole, is likely to affect their spending. We know that emotions generally affect what people do, including spending, and vice versa, that’s certainly the emotion of Democrats. can depress, and overall, likely, negatively affect their spending.”

The way some Americans were shopping online after the election bolsters that argument.

Shipping data collected by e-commerce logistics provider Grupp, which ships billions of items across the country each year and specializes in perishables, shows different shipping patterns in blue and red states. The firm examined how many packages it sent in the two months before the election and what percentage went to each state, and how that changed in the two weeks after the election.

In states won by the GOP, shipping volume increased by 50.4% after the election, while states won by Democrats saw volume decline by an average of 11.2%. Only two blue states — Illinois and Minnesota — saw an increase in shipping volume after the election, while all other states saw rates decrease.

“Our data shows how major events like elections can significantly affect consumer sentiment, driving changes in e-commerce shopping behavior and logistics patterns,” said Juan Meisel, CEO of Grupp. told CNBC. “Following this year’s election, we saw significant changes in spending activity, with some areas seeing increased volumes as consumer confidence increased, while others saw a decline.”

In a national consumer survey conducted after the election, GlobalData found that 51.3% of respondents believe that a Trump presidency will have a positive effect on the economy, while 13.5% plan to spend more this season than they do. have been elected. In contrast, 7.2% said they plan to spend less.

In another survey conducted by retail analytics firm First Insight, one-third of consumers said they plan to cut their holiday spending budgets because of the election.

“Consumers have mixed feelings about the election results. However, on balance, more people see it as negative than positive for the economy,” said Neil Saunders, managing director and retail analyst at Global Data. understand.” “If people feel good, they’re more likely to spend a little more on the holidays. Trump may not have much of an impact on Christmas, but as far as spending goes, he’s more like Santa than the Grinch.” are “

Sales estimates from the National Retail Federation and several consulting firms then fell slightly flat, ahead of the holiday shopping season. Many years of strong growthHappy with inflationary and pandemic stimulus checks.

In the 10 years before the pandemic and after the Great Recession, holiday retail sales grew an average of 3.68 percent each year. In some ways, this year’s forecast is a return to that historical average.

The NRF said it expects winter holiday spending to pick up in November and December. To grow between 2.5% and 3.5%. At the high end, it’s close to the pre-pandemic, 10-year average, but at the low end, it’s 32 percent below the historical average.

Any way you slice it, the forecast would represent the slowest growth since 2018, when holiday retail sales rose 1.8 percent from the year-ago period.

“I think we’re going to have a tough Christmas this year,” said Isaac Krakowski, EY America’s consulting retail leader. “All my clients, the big clients, are telling me they’re spending less. [capital expenditures]. That’s all, right? When it’s each of them, and driven by what they’re seeing in the market, it makes me think we’re going to have a tough holiday season.”

Most of the holiday predictions came out before the election, so they didn’t factor in the impact of a Trump win. But most experts agree that a decisive outcome is good for business in some way.

“The good news is that certainty is better than uncertainty, even if your person doesn’t win…I think that will help,” said Aaron Charis, a partner with the consulting firm Bain & Co. are “Typically, in election years, you see a little bit of backloading, where people might not have done anything before because they were waiting to see what happened, and so, are you going to do it? See a little on the margin maybe?

While many Americans Feels better As for the economy after Trump’s election, inflationary pain remains and holiday spending is expected to decline. Also, some categories are expected to perform better than others, which could create another win-lose situation for retailers in January.

Holiday sales for furniture and home furnishings are expected to decline in the high single digits, electronics and appliances are forecast to be flat, while apparel and groceries are expected to grow in the low single digits. Ben’s prophecy. These differences across categories came to light earlier this week when it comes to companies involved. Abercrombie & Fitch And Best buy reported income. Released by Abercrombie Strong holiday guidance Beyond expectations, while The best buy fell short.Warning demand for consumer electronics was slowing.

When inflation is taken into account, the forecast for retail sales gets a little bleaker, and a little worse. The NRF forecast is not adjusted for inflation, nor are Bain and EY’s 3% growth outlooks. When higher prices are removed from guidance, real growth is expected to come in closer to 0.5%, Krakowski estimates. Charis agreed that real growth should be much lower after inflation is taken into account.

“It’s not negative, it’s not recessionary, but it’s not exciting,” Cheris said.

Between 2010 and 2019, holiday retail sales increased an average of 4.41 percent when adjusted for inflation, according to an analysis of data published by Bain. If real sales grow only between 0.5% and 1% this holiday season, that would be a big drop from the pre-pandemic historical average.

Overall, inflation has been driving retail sales for the past few years, and many shoppers interviewed by CNBC, regardless of their political affiliation, lamented the impact of higher prices. Some said they plan to spend more this year, but that’s only because prices are higher — not because they’re buying more things.

For Mary Pitts, a 24-year-old college student in Detroit who works in customer care, high prices have made the holiday season feel like a chore to look forward to.

“I’m the type of person, even if it’s the holidays, I like to go shopping. I like to get my friends little gifts and stuff like that,” Pitts said. “Prices have skyrocketed so much that one of my hobbies that I’ve been enjoying literally since I was in high school…it’s not as fun as it used to be, because now I More worried about breaking my bank. I’m all about getting people the gifts I think they deserve.”

– Additional reporting by CNBC’s Michael Weiland, Melissa Repko, Sarah Whitten and Christian Burt