Trump Says Syria ‘Not Our Fight’ Living outside might not be so easy.

As Donald Trump sat with world leaders in Paris last weekend to view the restored Notre Dame Cathedral, armed Islamist fighters in Syria were riding in jeeps on their way to Damascus to finalize the overthrow of the Assad regime. were

In this split-screen moment of world news, the US president, sitting between the French first couple, still had an eye on the surprising turn of events in the Middle East.

“Sham is a mess, but he’s not our friend,” he posted on his Truth social network the same day.

He added, in all caps: “America has nothing to do with this. This is not our fight. Let it go. Don’t get involved!”

The post, and the day that followed, was a reminder of the president-elect’s powerful mandate not to interfere in foreign policy.

It also raises big questions about what comes next: Given the way the war has drawn and affected regional and global powers, does Trump really have “nothing to do” with Syria? President Bashar al-Assad’s government has fallen?

Will Trump withdraw US troops?

Is his policy radically different from President Biden’s, and if so, what is the point of the White House doing anything in the five weeks before Trump takes office?

The current administration is engaged in an intense period of diplomacy in response to the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the rise to power of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Syrian Islamist armed group designated by the United States as a terrorist organization.

I am writing this aboard Secretary of State Anthony Blanken’s plane, as he shuttles between Jordan and Turkey to try to win support from the region’s key Arab and Muslim countries for the terms that Washington will offer a future Syrian government. Keeping up with recognition.

The U.S. says it must be transparent and inclusive, not be a “terrorist haven,” not pose a threat to Syria’s neighbors, and destroy its stockpile of chemical and biological weapons.

For Mike Waltz, Trump’s nominee for national security adviser, who has yet to be confirmed, there is a guiding principle of his foreign policy.

He told Fox News this week that “President Trump was elected with a strong mandate not to drag America into more wars in the Middle East.”

He listed America’s “core interests” there as the Islamic State (IS) group, Israel and “our Gulf Arab allies.”

Waltz’s comments were a neat summary of Trump’s approach to Syria as a small piece in his larger regional policy puzzle.

Its goals are to ensure that the remnants of IS remain and to ensure that a future government in Damascus does not threaten Israel, Washington’s most important regional ally.

Trump is also focused on what he sees as the biggest prize: a landmark diplomatic and trade deal to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which he believes will further destabilize Iran. Will weaken and humiliate.

The rest, Trump believes, is a “mess” in Syria that needs to be sorted out.

Trump’s rhetoric echoes how he spoke about Syria during his first term, when he mocked the country — which has an extraordinary cultural history that stretches back thousands of years. Old – as a land of “sand and death”.

Robert Ford, who served as President Barack Obama’s ambassador to Syria from 2011-14, and who has argued for further U.S. intervention in this administration, said, “Donald Trump, himself, I think Wanted little to do with Syria during his first administration.” To counter Assad’s brutal repression of his own population in the form of support for moderate Syrian opposition groups.

“But there are other people in his circle who are very concerned about counter-terrorism,” he told the BBC.

The U.S. currently has about 900 troops in Syria in a 55-kilometer (34-mile) “deconfliction” zone east of the Euphrates River and bordering Iraq and Jordan.

Their official mission is to combat the IS group, now largely degraded in desert camps, and to train and equip the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF – the US-led Kurdish and Arab coalition that controls the region). .

SDFIS also protects camps containing fighters and their families.

In practice, the U.S. presence on the ground has also gone beyond that, helping to block a potential arms delivery route to Iran, which used Syria to supply its ally Hezbollah.

Mr. Ford, like other analysts, believes that while Trump’s isolationist instincts play well on social media, the facts on the ground and the views of his own team can moderate his stance.

The former adviser on Syria in the US State Department, Wael Al-Zayat, has the same opinion.

“He’s bringing on board some serious people in his administration who will run his Middle East file,” he told the BBC, noting in particular that Senator Marco Rubio, who is the secretary of State has been nominated for, “a serious foreign policy player.”

This tension – between isolationist ideologies and regional goals – also came to a head during his first term, when Trump withdrew remaining CIA funding for some “moderate” rebels, and in 2019 Ordered the withdrawal of US forces from northern Syria.

At the time, Waltz called the move a “strategic mistake” and, fearing a resurgence of IS, Trump’s own officials partially backtracked on the decision.

Trump also deviated from his non-interventionist ideals by firing 59 cruise missiles at a Syrian airfield, after Assad allegedly ordered a chemical weapons attack in 2017 that killed scores of civilians.

He also doubled down on sanctions against the Syrian leadership.

The blurred lines of Trump’s “this is not our fight” pledge were summed up by Waltz.

“That doesn’t mean he’s not ready to step in completely,” he told Fox News.

“If the American homeland is threatened in any way, President Trump has no qualms about taking decisive action.”

Another key figure raising the possibility of tensions is Tulsi Gabbard, whom Trump has nominated as director of national intelligence. The controversial former Democrat-turned-Trump ally met with Assad on a “fact-finding” trip in 2017, criticizing Trump’s policies at the time.

His nomination He is likely to face increased scrutiny amid accusations by US senators that he is an apologist for Assad and Russia – which he has denied..

Anxiety over the ongoing mission in Syria, and the desire to end it, is not unique to Trump.

In January, a drone strike by Iranian-backed militias operating in Syria and Iraq killed three US soldiers at a US base in Jordan, as the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza threatens to spill over into the region.

That attack and others continue to raise questions for the Biden administration over U.S. force levels and their presence in the region.

Indeed, the positions of the outgoing Biden and the incoming Trump administration on Syria are more similar than they are divergent.

Despite sharp differences in tone and rhetoric, both leaders want Damascus to be governed by a government aligned with American interests.

Both Biden and Trump want to build on Iran and Russia’s humiliation in Syria.

Trump’s “this is not our fight, let it go” is his equivalent of the Biden administration’s “this is a process that the Syrians have to lead, not the US”.

But the “big” difference, and the one causing the most anxiety among Biden supporters, is in Trump’s approach to U.S. forces on the ground and U.S. support for the SDF, said Bassam Barabandi, a former Syrian diplomat in Washington. said, which helped opposition figures flee. Assad regime.

“There’s more empathy, connection, passion toward Biden. [the Kurds]. Historically, he was one of the first senators to visit Kurdish areas. [of northern Iraq] After Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait,” he said.

“Trump and his ilk don’t care that much… they care about not leaving their allies out. They understand that, [but] The way it is implemented is different.”

Mr Barbandi, who said he supports Trump’s non-interventionist rhetoric, believes the president-elect will “definitely” withdraw US troops, but with a gradual time frame and a clear plan. .

He said that it will not be like Afghanistan within 24 hours. “He’ll say within six months, or whatever, a deadline for that and everything to be arranged.”

Much may revolve around Trump’s talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with whom he is believed to have a close relationship.

US support for the SDF has long been a source of tension with Turkey, which views the People’s Defense Units (YPG) – the Kurdish force that forms the military backbone of the SDF – as a terrorist organization. is

Since the fall of Assad, Turkey has been conducting airstrikes to drive Kurdish fighters out of strategic areas, including the city of Manbij.

Trump wants to cut a deal with his friend in Ankara that would allow him to withdraw US troops and see Turkey’s hand strengthened.

But the prospect of Turkish-backed groups taking control of some areas worries many, including former US State Department Syria expert Wael al-Zayat.

“You cannot have different groups operating in different parts of the country, controlling different resources,” he added.

“There’s either a political process, which I think the U.S. role is, or something else, and I hope they avoid that latter scenario.”