The UK and EU see 2025 as a reset year but with little room for trade.

In early 2025, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is invited to an informal summit of EU leaders. This is the first such invitation for Britain since the bitter days of Brexit negotiations.

The focus of the February meeting is future security and defense cooperation. Background: Unstable state of the world from Europe’s perspective.

Wars are raging in the Middle East and Europe – aided by Iran, North Korea and China in their invasion of Ukraine.

Adding to the uncertainty plaguing the continent, Donald Trump is poised to re-enter the White House.

He has threatened Western cohesion with his pledge to slap punitive tariffs on imports – a major concern for the EU and Britain – and possibly pull out of NATO, the transatlantic defense alliance Europeans call security. has depended for, since its inception after World War II. .

The threats to security and trade tariffs have helped remind the EU and the UK of the common values ​​they share at an unexpected time.

The EU felt weakened by Brexit in 2016. This meant losing a major economy and its only significant military power other than France.

As for the post-Brexit UK, now free from the rules of EU membership, it is now a much smaller power on the world stage.

And, closer to home, the Labor government has realized that Europe is key to delivering on a number of priority commitments to the UK public.

Mark Leonard says, “Economy, defence, migration… all have a European element, which makes EU relations central to the whole government agenda. The things that will make this government succeed are Europe.” are associated with.” Director of the European Council for External Relations.

Labor has repeatedly promised an “ambitious realignment” of EU-UK relations.

There has been a lot of shuttle diplomacy and symbolism since winning the general election in the summer.

Foreign Secretary David Lemmy attended a meeting of EU foreign ministers, Chancellor Rachel Reeves spoke at a summit of EU finance ministers, and the Prime Minister traveled to Brussels for a sit-in with EU Commission chief Ursula van der Leyen. Gone.

But what does this “reset” really mean? What can we expect in 2025?

Could the UK government allow some freedom of movement in return for economic benefits on EU trade?

An EU-UK summit is planned for the spring, and several political figures and high-level diplomats from EU member states and the UK spoke to me on condition of anonymity before bilateral talks begin. of

I kept hearing about the “huge goodwill” towards the new Labor government in the EU with its repeated “reset” enthusiasms.

At the same time, there is a clear note of skepticism from Brussels, which a Labor government would do well to address if it wants to see tangible results.

“There is headspace. There is a desire in Europe for a closer relationship with the UK,” one EU figure told me.

“What’s less clear is what London is really interested in – and what trade deals it’s willing to develop to get there. That’s the key, and it seems London has yet to do that. It is not over.”

The defense and security arrangements I mentioned are the proverbial “low-hanging fruit” as far as the EU-UK reset is concerned.

It is relatively easy to formalize what is already happening: cooperation on Russia sanctions, for example, as well as discussions – already taking place within NATO – on military and defense capabilities and Europe’s defense against cyber attacks and How to best protect against attacks on critical installations Like the energy infrastructure in the North Sea.

This is seen as a win-win deal.

And there is no proposal to make the defense agreement legally binding.

A Labor government does not have to worry about the political opposition here or those in the UK voting to leave – as an attempt to “rollback Brexit”. And it is sensitive to this potential charge.

But Labor has also made promises on trade and the economy: to “make Brexit work” and to “tear down” the trade barriers imposed by Brexit. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that Brexit will cost the UK economy 4% of GDP in the long run.

Labor wants to avoid this, but it is not as straightforward as it seems.

EU figures say they are confused by the UK government’s announcement of an “ambitious” rescheduling, insisting on limiting post-Brexit red lines.

A recent working paper outlining the EU’s interests says there are “limited economic benefits on offer” as the UK rejoins the EU’s customs union or single market or accepts free movement of people. has refused.

Some in the EU suspect that the UK government believes it may have an advantage on trade for defence. What they say, is never going to happen.

“Britain is wrong if it thinks it can use the defense deal as a backdoor to cut sweet deals with us on trade,” one EU diplomat told me.

“For us it’s like being in a strange conflict. The EU has the devil on one shoulder and the angel on the other. In terms of values, there is much more that unites us than divides us with the UK.

“The EU wants to take action to bring the UK closer, but on the other hand, we can’t do away with the technicalities that are the basis of the EU, we can’t do special deals, even if it limits the relationship. together.”

Both sides will have to compromise to see a significant improvement in economic relations.

In Brussels, there is no desire to scrap the TCA – the pre-existing trade agreement between the EU and the UK. But you see the EU’s openness to start negotiations on different economic sectors simultaneously.

“We can walk and chew gum at the same time,” insisted one EU diplomat.

There is also an acknowledgment by the UK that sectoral agreements will also include alignment with EU rules in these areas.

The key to any compromise that Labor can push with the EU will be: can they sell the result back home as a win for the British people?

The EU will push hard for long-term fishing rights in UK waters.

It also wants a Youth Mobility Scheme, which allows 18-30 year olds to work and/or study in the UK or EU for up to three years, paying local fees at university if they choose the study option. do

The UK government insists there will be no return to freedom of movement with the EU.

Migration is a hot button issue. But it is notable that Labor has not outright ruled out a youth scheme. He has only said that he has “no plans” to go for it.

On youth mobility, the assumption is that more EU youth will benefit from the mobility scheme than UK nationals due to language barriers.

But the UK government could use the mobility scheme requested by the EU and/or the openness to the fisheries agreement to negotiate something important to UK interests, such as occupation. Mutual recognition of professional qualifications, which makes it easier for cross-channel businesses, or UK artists and entertainers, to travel across the EU.

Both were listed as priorities in Labour’s election manifesto if the party came into government.

Labor also wants to move to a veterinary deal with the EU, to reduce barriers to trade in food and agricultural products. This would require UK alignment with EU animal and plant health rules.

Both the EU and the UK are interested in better cooperation and coordination on energy and climate.

Sir Kerr also made it a priority.

Linking carbon emissions trading schemes, as the EU does with many other countries, would mean the UK avoids the implications of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) – which would cost UK businesses is

And removing barriers post-Brexit would save EU and UK consumers €44bn (£36bn) by 2040 and reduce investment costs in North Sea wind by 16%, according to the Burna business consultancy.

In addition to the United Kingdom, the North Sea basin includes the EU member states Belgium, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands, and Norway, a member of the single market. It is one of the world’s most promising areas for offshore wind.

On illegal migration, the EU says it is open to closer cooperation with Britain. It wants Britain to crack down more on people working in the country illegally.

France complains that the ease with which it says illegal migrants can disappear and earn a living is a big blow to Britain for economic migrants.

The European Union has ruled out that Britain could send migrants, who arrived on its shores illegally on small boats, back to the EU countries from which they departed.

Any progress in EU-UK relations in 2025 and beyond is likely to be slow due to political concerns and because negotiations tend to get bogged down in detail.

In direct contrast, a recent poll by YouGov and Datapraxis for the European Council on Foreign Relations found that voters in the EU and the UK were more likely than leaders in Brussels and London to be on previous political taboos for strengthening ties. Far more gung-ho about the jump.

The survey found that around half of those asked in the UK believe that greater involvement with the EU would strengthen the UK’s economy (50%), its security (53%) and immigration (58%). It is the best way to organize effectively.

When asked who the UK government should prioritize relations with, 50% chose Europe and just 17% the US.

A large 68% of respondents in the UK see the benefit of reintroducing cross-channel freedom of movement in exchange for access to the European single market.

The desire for cooperation, and the willingness to abandon previous red lines, is also reciprocated in Europe.

Majorities of voters in Poland (54%) and Germany (53%) – and voters in Spain (43%), Italy (42%) and France (41%) – believe the EU should give Britain special access. should Certain parts of the European Single Market to secure a closer security-based relationship.

Geopolitical risks and uncertainties seem to be changing public opinion dramatically. Will the political class in Britain and the EU choose to remain?