Butler, who came into training camp proclaiming “no shenanigans” this season, had just 18 points in the last two games after sitting out the previous five games due to illness. Shams Charania of ESPN reported on December 10 that the Heat were listening to offers for Butler, and then on December 25 that Butler preferred a trade out of Miami.
After Thursday’s loss, the situation reached this point. Indiana PacersButler said he wants to find his joy on the court again. When asked if he could do that in Miami, he replied “probably not.”
ESPN Insiders Tim Bontemps, Bobby Marks, Kevin Pelton and Brian Windhorst look at how things got to this point between the six-time All-Star and the franchise he’s played for since 2019, as Why can’t trading be that easy? Looks and what Butler can bring to a contender.
How did Pete Riley go from pledging not to trade Butler to a seven-game suspension with the Heat now listening to trade offers?
Butler’s strategy of forcing Miami’s hand and reversing its stance appeared to work in the short term. The Heat didn’t fully specify all of the components they felt were his “harmful conduct” that led to the suspension, but Butler clearly wanted to be traded and the Heat to the same conclusion. Steps were taken to deliver. His weakness has been playing the last two games after five outs, perhaps because of an illness on the roster. In the short term, Butler’s play will cost him $2.35 million in salary, but he could eventually win back some or all of that through a planned grievance with the players’ union. — The wind horst
How have Riley and the Heat dealt with similar situations in the past?
Riley was never afraid to say no or walk away from star players when he didn’t want to pay them. Tim Hardaway, Alonzo Mourning, Dwyane Wade all left at various points to sign elsewhere. He traded Shaquille O’Neal and Shawn Marion, among others, when he wanted to pivot the franchise. Now Butler will join the list. Riley has always been able to acquire great talent, and that reputation has always encouraged him to play hardball. — The wind horst
This isn’t the first time Butler’s tenure with a team has ended. What happened in Chicago, Minnesota and Philadelphia?
Each of them had different circumstances. Chicago declined to give Butler a max contract and traded him to Minnesota for a package of young players and a draft pick.
The situation in Minnesota was very similar: Butler was unhappy with his contract and requested a trade. But there was one big difference: Butler had just turned 29, not 35. He was eventually traded to the 76ers. Dario SaricRobert Covington, Jared Bayless and a second-round pick.
Then, after one season in Philadelphia, the 76ers opted to essentially pay a combination. Tobias Harris, Josh Richardson And Al Horford terminated Butler and sent him to Miami in a sign-and-trade during the summer of 2019. — Bontemps
Can the 7 game suspension be extended? Have previous players been suspended for similar stand-offs?
The suspension includes Saturday’s home match. Utah Jazz And an upcoming six-game road trip. It’s clear Riley is sending a message that he doesn’t want Butler around the team right now. What’s unknown is what happens when the suspension expires before Miami’s Jan. 19 home game San Antonio Spurs.
Unless Butler is deemed to have violated the harmful conduct policy in his contract from the time the suspension began, Miami cannot extend the suspension to include more games. Because the suspension is done by the team. And not the NBA.the Heat will not get the luxury tax savings.
Butler isn’t the only player suspended by his team over the past three seasons. In November 2022, Brooklyn Nets Suspended Guard Kerry Irving Eight games due to being “ineligible to be associated” with the team The guard failed to say whether he held anti-Semitic beliefs.. — Signs
How much will the butler be fined and can a complaint be filed?
Butler is being fined $336,543 for each of the seven games. This amount is equal to 1/145 of his salary of $48.8 million, which comes to a total of about $2.4 million. Butler has 30 days to file a complaint, and the fine will remain in an escrow account until the situation is resolved. The complaint process can take up to a year. The NBA Players Association released a statement late Friday saying the suspension was excessive and inappropriate.
Which teams could actually trade for him?
Butler asking to be traded and the Heat now listening to offers doesn’t change the challenges of finding a new home for the former All-Star. Butler’s combined salary of $48.8 million this season and roughly a third of the salary teams are not allowed to recoup in trades. Complicates any potential deal..
Three of the four teams on Butler’s priority list — Dallas Mavericksthe Golden State Warriors And The Phoenix Suns — would need to trade a quarter of their roster. The sun will be needed Bradley Bell Let go of its no-trade clause. Sources told ESPN that the Heat have no desire to recoup the $110 million owed to Bell and that Phoenix will need to find a third team. The Warriors and Mavericks will likely need to find a third or fourth team to restructure some of the contracts sent.
The Heat are also not allowed to recoup much salary because they are an apron team. — Signs
Can Butler help a contender this season and in the future (if he re-signs with that team)?
It depends on how much Butler benefits from rediscovering the joy of basketball with another team. Butler’s 17.6 scoring average is his lowest since 2013-14, the season before he won MVP and was voted an All-Star for the first time, but it’s hard to believe. The reason is that Butler has more to offer elsewhere.
Butler’s 21% usage rate is down significantly from last season’s 24%. At the same time, Butler is scoring goals more efficiently. His .648 true shooting percentage would be the best of his NBA career, just shy of 2023-24. And Butler’s 58% 2-point shooting is easily a career high, suggesting that his scoring decline is more about being selective than an inability to make shots.
Not only do Butler’s peripheral stats remain strong, but we have plenty of evidence of “Playoff Jimmy” playing well. When the stakes are highest.. During Butler’s four playoff runs in Miami — before he was lost to the Heat in the 2024 first round Boston Celtics Due to a sprained MCL — he led the NBA with 12.4 wins per game. WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) metric over this period.
During the regular season, Butler was just sixth in total WARP during the same season. He produced 3.7 more WARP in the playoffs than we expected based on his regular season performance. only Denver Nuggets Guard Jamal Murray Was more of a playoff overperformer than Butler from 2020 to 2023.
At some point, Butler’s age (35) will undoubtedly take a toll, explaining Miami’s reluctance to offer him a maximum extension. Over the next three seasons, my SCHOENE PROJECTION SYSTEM Butler is projected to drop about three wins in regular-season value based on the development of similar players at the same age. While Butler’s 2025-26 projection still places him in the NBA’s top 20 players, by 2027-28 he is projected to drop to 45th. — Kevin Pelton
What kind of extension is Butler looking for? What is the most likely outcome before the trade deadline?
Due to the league’s over-38 rulethe maximum extension Miami can sign Butler is for two years, $112.6 million. It will replace his $52.4 million player option for next season with a new starting salary of $54.1 million. The second year will pay Butler $58.5 million when he turns 37.
If Butler is traded, he would be eligible to sign a two-year, $111 million extension with his new team.
Butler’s trade demand and now suspension doesn’t mean the Heat are ordered to trade. If Miami doesn’t receive an offer of its choice, it could allow Butler to walk in free agency if it exercises its player option. Rejects — or works together on trades.
Butler, who turns 36 in September, doesn’t fit the roster timeline. Brooklyn NetsThe only team to project more than $40 million in cap space. — Marks
Do we believe he will be traded?
No. Paul George Last season with LA Clippers Here’s an outline of how this situation could play out over the next few months.
The long-standing pattern in the NBA in these situations is that with a disgruntled player like Butler, the team has to “get something” and trade him somewhere. But it was in a previous financial reality that the league existed.
Under a much more restrictive collective bargaining agreement, the NBA is operating in what is much closer to a hard cap environment than before. So if a team is required to take back negative long-term salary in the process of getting something in a deal, it can create real problems for a club trying to get rid of such a deal in the future. That’s doubly true for the Heat, who are one of the league’s most sought-after destinations for players and want as much flexibility as possible to acquire more top talent in the future.
That’s one of several reasons why the Heat, according to sources, are reluctant to recoup long-term money in a Butler trade. Combined with trade restrictions that have made it difficult to move any major salary around the league, sources aren’t convinced a deal is guaranteed in the next month. — Bontemps