One in four properties could be at risk of flooding by 2050 – report

Around eight million properties in England – or one in four – could be at risk of flooding by 2050 as the risk increases due to climate change, the Environment Agency (EA) has said.

In its first assessment of how a warming world could affect flooding, the EA warned of increased risks from heavy rainfall and rising sea levels.

If more houses are built on flood plains, the number of properties at risk may increase, but if flood defenses are improved, this may decrease.

Currently, 6.3 million properties are considered at risk of flooding, new figures show, more than previously thought.

“The frequency and severity of the type of flooding events we are experiencing is likely to become more and more challenging,” said Julie Foley, director of flood risk strategy at the Environment Agency.

The EA considers flooding from three main sources: rivers, seas and surface water – where heavy rainfall overwhelms drainage systems.

It defines properties as being “at risk” when the annual probability of flooding is greater than one in 1,000.

Currently, the EA says 4.6 million homes and businesses are at risk of surface flooding, with London the most affected region.

That’s a 43% increase from its previous estimate, but that’s almost entirely due to better data sets and computer modeling techniques rather than a real-world increase in flood risk.

However, the EA says climate change could increase the number of properties at risk of surface flooding to 6.1 million by the middle of this century.

It is well documented that a A warming world generally increases the intensity of heavy rainfall..

Between October 2023 and March 2024, for example, the amount of rain on stormy days in the UK An average increase of 20% is due to climate change..

The report also highlights the increasing risk of flooding from rivers and the sea – rising from 2.4 million properties today to around 3.1 million by mid-century.

The East Midlands, Yorkshire and the Humber, and south-east England are particularly at risk.

This type of flooding — from rivers bursting their banks or from storms bringing seawater ashore — can be especially damaging because it often brings deep floodwaters.

Wetter winters increase the likelihood of river flooding, while rising sea levels increase the likelihood of coastal flooding.

Global sea levels are rising primarily due to a combination of melting glaciers and ice sheets, and the fact that warm water takes up more space. They are expected to continue to grow for centuries to come.

Average sea level around Britain has already risen by around 20cm since 1900, most of which has been occurring since the 1990s.

It also has knock-on effects on coastal erosion – the displacement of land along coastlines due to wave action.

Britain already has some of the fastest-eroding coastlines in Europe.

But climate change could increase the number of properties at risk of being effectively lost to the sea by 2100 by around 20,000, even if adequate coastal management plans are put in place, the EA says.

That will increase to 3,500 between now and mid-century.

This report only considers how climate change affects future flood risk.

There are many other factors that can shape the impact of future floods, from building on flood plains to improving flood defenses.

Thanks in part to the Thames Barrier flood defences, for example, London is currently considered less vulnerable to flooding from rivers and seas than some other regions.

But there have been repeated warnings that Britain is unprepared for the effects of a changing climate.

Earlier this year, a cross-party committee of MPs warned that the Govt Its existing flood defenses have not been sufficiently maintained or substantially new ones have been built.. Lack of funds has been a major problem.

In response to today’s report, Floods Minister Emma Hardy acknowledged that “too many communities are at risk of flooding”.

“This is why we have committed £2.4 billion over the next two years to restore, repair and build flood defenses to protect communities across the country,” he said.

Additional reporting by Jonah Fisher and Miho Tanaka; Map of Yerevan Revolt