The seemingly endless political war within Pakistan between the government and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), read Imran Khan, does not seem to have reached a complete ceasefire, but has entered a lull. The announcement of potential sentences in some cases, including the £190 million Al-Qadir Trust case against Imran Khan, has been delayed. Despite this, roundups and intimidation of PTI supporters continue, and controversial military courts have swiftly sentenced dozens of people.
So the Maoist dictum between the government and the PTI is now: da da tan tan — fight, talk.
The government which tried to ban Tehreek-e-Insaf is now emphasizing the importance of dialogue. Meanwhile, the PTI leadership has also backed away from its earlier “all or nothing” approach. It no longer demands an “immediate return of the mandate” nor does it give unrealistic deadlines to the government to meet PTI’s demands. And above all, the PTI has negotiated with the government and not with the “real power holders”, as it used to insist.
Dialogue is the result of several factors. Both sides have taken maximum positions to knock out the other, now know that a zero result is not possible for either side. The government has deployed all the powers available at its command, often stepping outside the constitutionally defined legal parameters. It has curbed PTI’s street power but failed to undermine public support for Imran Khan, who alone commands public support for PTI. Imran Khan has refused to be released from prison despite several pressures.
In addition to this, there is a flurry of tweets from US President-elect Trump’s camp, which is likely to influence the establishment-led government’s policy of interaction with the PTI. Richard Grenell, a longtime Trump foreign policy adviser who now serves as Trump’s special envoy, regularly fires off “Free Imran Khan” tweets.
Similarly, the “thinking heads” within the PTI also believe that an all-out victory against an establishment-backed government is not possible. The PTI’s call for street protests, including the “Ultimate Call”, cost the party at least 12 political martyrs, yet the PTI’s street power against the state is unlikely. Interestingly, the PTI’s active participation as parliamentarians and the KP as a government in the post-election system that it seeks to subvert to some extent also defeats the logic of a tough fight against the government.
Fortunately, in this nearly two-year-long political confrontation, the fight-and-talk approach has been one that has been consistently adopted by the two main parties. Accordingly, several informal channels of communication between the PTI and the establishment/government remained active, through public appearances, actions, anger and confrontation. Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi and KPK Chief Minister during the talks between the establishment and PTI throughout the last year, the establishment has lost basic communication with the PTI. The talks between the government and the PTI on December 23 preceded the day-long Gandapur-Naqvi meeting on December 20. Perhaps major differences were ironed out so the dialogue was not terminated at the outset.
So now after a gap of 20 months, the PTI has held talks with the government on thorny political issues including the release of political prisoners and the setting up of judicial commissions for the May 9, 2023 and November 26 incidents. Three things will be important in terms of the process and substance of the negotiations. One, agreeing on some ground rules, avoiding personal attacks, not “defeating” each other by informally providing negative feedback to the media, trying to be positive in public about the conversation, etc. This seems to be an agreed code of conduct between the two. The negotiators are already at work.
Two, that the government demonstrates that it is willing to address the concerns behind the PTI’s demands, which means that you will discuss with the PTI possibilities that will address those concerns. may be available for Obviously, these negotiations cannot immediately provide the one-sided solution process that needs to be initiated where commitment from both sides is communicated transparently in the public arena. Three, the environment and context during the conversation need to be kept calm.
Importantly, after the talks, several positive statements have come out from both sides. For example, veteran Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader Rana Sanaullah emphasized that there was no reason to turn the confrontation between the government and the opposition into a negotiated solution to affirmative action. Not to be done. Similarly, when Asad Qaiser was asked about possible developments, he wisely declined to comment and said that he would only discuss the demands. It seems to mean that some understanding has been reached to stay positive and not speculate too much.
The track record of negotiations between PTI and the government is mixed. In the case of the 26th Amendment, several rounds of negotiations took place and initial reports raised hopes of reaching a common position. Perhaps given that the government is determined to ensure the establishment of a constitutional court and the appointment of judges whose observations it is comfortable with, it was not possible to reach a common position between them and the PTI. Still, the talks eased tensions and eventually made the PTI a part of the Judicial Commission of Pakistan. This act of political engagement on the 26th Amendment enables the PTI to build a bridge with the JUI.
Dedicated negotiation teams actually address crisis issues directly and improve the political environment in the country. For example, around May or June 2022, the negotiating teams led by Ishaq Dar and Shah Mehmood Qureshi actually managed to make progress on the question of elections. After talking to the members of both the teams, it was quite clear that the government had agreed to settle for parliament and fresh elections around August, but Imran Khan demanded immediate action. This was not possible and at the same time the government in Punjab went full force against PTI President Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi. So, while breakthroughs are possible, the 2022 talks clearly showed that both sides will have to be patient.
Clearly, as evidenced by Imran Khan’s statement that he was offered house arrest, Naqvi Gandapur’s negotiations It has helped to create some understanding and a way of truce. Although a number of issues will still have to be agreed upon to reach a common ground for a workable agreement, Pakistan’s long-entangled There is some hope of political progress on the political horizon.
The author is a senior journalist. She tweets at @nasimzehra and can be contacted at: [email protected]
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Geo.tv..
Originally published. The News