last season, Minnesota Timberwolves Battled for the top seed in the West all the way before advancing to the conference finals.
This season, after one A franchise-changing trade During training camp, they lost 10 of their first 18 games out of the gate and looked like they would have to fight for even a spot in the Western Conference play-in tournament.
But recently, they have begun to resemble the formidable squad that made a run last season.
The question is, who is the real Timberwolves team? And, more importantly, who will they be when the season ends?
Let’s find out.
Minnesota’s identity last season
In 2023–24, the Timberwolves were a below-average offensive team, with an offensive rating of 115.6 points per 100 (16th in the NBA) while scoring 113.0 PPG (18th). Their offensive weakness was largely tied to their lack of 3-point volume. The Timberwolves are 23rd in 3-point attempts per game (32.7). He makes them at a decent clip (38.7 3P%, third) but shoots so little that he’s still just 15th in 3-pointers made.
The key to the Timberwolves’ success was their elite defense. They allowed the NBA’s team defensive rating of 109.0 points per 100 possessions, and were No. 1 as well, allowing just 106.5 points per game. Anchored by Defensive Player of the Year Rudy GobertThe Timberwolves were pressing enough to overcome their lack of long-range shooting.
Here’s how things started this season
When the Timberwolves traded. Carl Anthony Townshe came away with one of his best 3-point threats (2.2 3PG, 41.6 3P%). But both Julius Randle And Donate di VincenzoThe main players they brought back in the trade are also strong 3-point shooters. In addition, Anthony Edwards Started the season shooting 3-pointers at a volume and efficiency he’s never shown before (4.0 3PG, third in the NBA, at 41.1 3P%).
The result has been a Timberwolves offense that now ranks fifth in the NBA in 3-pointers attempted (40.1) and made (14.9) while shooting them at a solid clip (37.2 3P%, 11th). Even so, the offense has gotten worse: The Timberwolves are 21st in the NBA with a team offensive rating of 111.3, and they’re scoring just 109.3 PPG (23rd). This was a major reason for the Timberwolves’ slow start.
But the main reason for this was their defense. Or lack thereof?
Through those first 18 games, the Timberwolves were allowing 111.3 PPG. That mark would rank near the league average (113.0 ppg), but it’s a far cry from their top-of-the-league defense from last season. That’s why the team went from a Western Conference finalist to a sub-.500 squad.
After that 18th game, Edwards snapped. The Timberwolves had only given up a 12-point lead in the final seven minutes to face an 11-point loss to the Kings, and Edwards pulled no punches. He touts his team as the front-runners: “Our identity right now is, I think we’re soft as hell internally as a team,” he said. Then he made it more personal, adding: “Not to the other team, but internally, we’re soft. We can’t talk to each other. And we’ve got to figure it out, because we’re not on that road. can go.”
Better game after AdWords comments
Edwards’ words caught fire, as in the next four games they held opponents to 92, 80, 80 and 90 points, the four lowest totals they had allowed. Since the tirade, the Timberwolves have won nine of 13 games. They’ve scored fewer points at 105.4 ppg, but are allowing 101.5 ppg, a mark that would be best in the NBA if they kept it up for the season (Thunder, 103.3).
Finding their defense gives the Timberwolves a chance to reclaim their level from last season, but they still have to fix the offense. The transition from Towns to Randle has proven difficult, with Randle more accustomed to an ISO style off the dribble as opposed to Towns’ catch-and-shoot and ability to finish in the paint. Randle and Edwards are both ISO players, but neither is a great ball handler or distributor, so they take turns instead of matching each other to carry the team.
The key to the Timberwolves’ offense moving forward could be the other player they got back in the Towns trade, DiVincenzo. He is known as a shooter, but he also has a knack for playing with the ball in his hands. Mike Connelly Getting older, but DiVincenzo has the size to play with him and the skills to facilitate the offense when Conley sits. After struggling most of the season, DiVincenzo has increased his numbers to 16.8 PPG, 3.7 3PG (48.9 3P%) in 27.7 MPG over his last six outings. And has done 3.2 APG.
How to bet on the Timberwolves moving forward
If the Timberwolves can maintain their defense while improving their offense, they have the potential to be as good as or surpass the team they were last season. They have similar pillars of defense, and are now playing to potential. If they continue to improve their ability to work together, the offense will grow even more with overall talent. Which I consider a reasonable bet.
So, let’s look at the future implications of a team of this caliber moving forward in current adversity.
ESPN BET
The Timberwolves’ regular season wins are set at 47.5. They are -350 to make the playoffs, +4000 to win the Northwest division, +1100 to win the West and +1800 to win the championship.
The best bet from this group is over 47.5 wins (-115).. To reach that mark, the Timberwolves will need to win 31 of their remaining 51 (60.8%). Last season, the Timberwolves won at a 68.3% clip. And since Edwards’ “gentle” speech, the Timberwolves have come back winning at a 69.2% rate. If they keep it up, they will win over 47.5.
They’re a good bet to make the playoffs, but -350 isn’t enough in such a deep Western Conference. And trailing the Thunder by nine games, they are too far behind to realistically project to catch them in the Northwest Division.
The second most interesting bet is the Timberwolves to win the West. At +1100 they are long odds in a race where there isn’t a huge gap between them and the other rivals. The Timberwolves were just in the conference finals last season, are playing at a higher level now and still have achievable upside to be better than before. If you’re looking for a long shot with a decent chance of hitting the mark, this is one of the better values on the board.