Moldova is facing an energy crisis after the flow of Russian gas ends.

On New Year’s Day, Russian gas was cut off from Ukraine.

Kiev is calling it a “historic” day as Russia’s refusal to extend its transit deal with Gazprom is payback for an all-out invasion of Ukraine. The flow has been stopped.

But this move threatens to create a crisis in neighboring Moldova.

In Transnistria, a separatist region of eastern Moldova loyal to Moscow, the year began with only hospitals and critical infrastructure heating up, not homes.

“The hot water was on until 2am, I checked. Now it’s off and the radiators are barely warm,” Dimitri told the BBC by phone from his flat in the enclave.

“We still have gas, but the pressure is very low – just what’s left in the pipes.”

“It’s the same everywhere.”

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Transnistria was separated from the rest of Moldova in a brief war. It still has Russian troops on its soil and an economy that depends entirely on Russian gas, for which Traspol authorities pay nothing.

“They only have one file, where it is stated how much is owed each month,” explains Jakub Pankowski of the Polish Institute of International Affairs, PSIM. “But Russia has no interest in asking for this money.”

Suddenly, that lifeline has been cut through Ukraine.

In some Transnistrian towns, authorities are setting up “heating points” and hotlines to help find firewood. Families are advised to huddle in a room for warmth and cover cracks in windows and doors with blankets.

New Year’s Day brought sunshine to the enclave but overnight temperatures are forecast to drop below 0C.

Local resident Dimitri says that it is cold inside the flat now. “And we don’t know what frost January will bring.”

Electricity is still flowing.

But Transnistria’s main power plant in Kirchhogan is already being fueled by coal instead of Russian gas, and officials say there is only enough for 50 days.

That means problems for the rest of Moldova, which gets 80 percent of its electricity from Curchugan.

The government in Chisinau says it has enough gas to heat the country until spring and will be inclined to buy electricity from Europe, but that means huge increases in costs.

A state of emergency was introduced last month and businesses and citizens have been asked to reduce consumption with the country poised for power cuts.

The sudden shutdown of gas flows through Ukraine also affects Slovakia and Hungary.

Both governments are sympathetic to Moscow, which has been slower than others in the EU to divest itself of Russian fuel and end Russian war financing. Paying more for alternative supplies will squeeze their budget.

But Moldova is poor and less stable – a prolonged crisis could have serious economic and political consequences.

This is what Moscow wants.

Russia could supply its allies in Transnistria via Turkey, albeit at a higher cost, which would mean electricity for all of Moldova.

Instead, Gazprom claims it has halted supplies because Chisinau owes about $700 million. The Moldovan government says an international audit put the real amount at about $9 million, most of which has been returned.

“We are not looking at this as an energy crisis, but as a security crisis, which Russia has made Moldova economically and socially unstable,” Olga Ruska, a foreign policy adviser to the president of Moldova, told the BBC. Incited to do.”

“This is clearly a formative move ahead of parliamentary elections in 2025, which could create calls for pro-Russian forces to return to power.”

Relations between Moldova and Moscow are strained.

After being part of the USSR, the country has begun negotiations to join the European Union and has increasingly turned its back on Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

President Maia Sandu was re-elected last year despite evidence of a massive campaign from Moscow to lead him.

It hasn’t stopped.

Before his inauguration, Russia’s external SVR intelligence agency issued a bizarre statement falsely claiming that it planned to take back Transnistria by force to restore energy supplies. He painted the president as “obsessed” and “emotionally unstable.”

Analyst Jakub Pieńkowski agrees that the Kremlin is taking advantage of Kiev’s decision to ban Russian gas transport.

“This is one of the reasons for creating some political and social problems in Moldova,” he argues. “Electricity prices have already gone up almost sixfold in three years and people are angry.”

As the humanitarian situation in Transnistria worsens, pressure on Chisinau will increase. But Tiraspol is refusing all help, even generators.

“They will create a narrative of Transnistria freezing Chisinau,” believes Olga Ruska.

And even if Tiraspol chooses to buy gas elsewhere, its economy could suffer.

“Prices will go up here, including heat and food. But pensions are very low here, and there are no jobs,” Dimitri from Bendery, in the buffer zone on the edge of Transnistria, told me.

He says the people there are barely “wrapped up” as it is. Now life will be difficult elsewhere in Moldova.

“Russia can wait for the elections and then the parties that are not pro-EU will probably win,” predicts Jacob Pankowski.

“Because Maya Sandu can talk about joining the EU, but what’s the point if people don’t have money for electricity or gas?”

“This is Russia’s goal.”