Joaquin Buckley Looking to win his sixth straight fight when he takes on the former interim UFC welterweight champion Colby Covington In the main event at UFC Fight Night (10 pm ET on ESPN2/ESPN+on ESPN2/ESPN+ with prelims at 7 p.m.).
Buckley (20-6), ESPN’s No. 9 ranked welterweighthas not lost since December 2022. Recently, Buckley took a beating. Stephen Thompson via third-round knockout at UFC 307 in October. Covington (17-4), No. 8 in ESPN’s divisional rankings, is coming off a loss Leon Edwards In a challenge for the welterweight title in December 2023. Covington has lost three of its last five.
Brett Okamoto talks to MMA analyst and former UFC welterweight. Alan Jobin To get his perspective on the main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the main event and other interesting bets of his choice on the card.
Editor’s note: Answers have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Welterweight: Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley
Alan Jobin, MMA analyst and former UFC welterweight
How Covington Wins: Covington’s last fight left me feeling like he was done. He didn’t do any of the things we know him to do. Usually, Covington shoots for takedowns early, and I like that about him because even if his opponent gets a takedown in the first 90 seconds, he knows that every round. I have five more visitors. Against Edwards, he didn’t shoot his first takedown until the third round and was throwing these slow kicks instead of using his boxing to set up takedowns. To win this fight, he has to do everything he didn’t do against Edwards. I don’t see Covington finishing Buckley, so drag him into deeper waters, use that speed and take risks with strikes to set up takedowns.
How Buckley Wins: Buckley’s grappling is underrated. He came into the UFC as a striker, but lately he’s been taking everyone down. against Norselton Rosie BoeufBuckley took him down repeatedly and wasn’t concerned about the threat of submissions. Buckley’s fight IQ has improved a lot — he’s doing all the right moves now. No one expects Buckley to show up to wrestle, but I think he’ll take Covington to the fence, giving Covington a chance to throw him to the ground. I think he’s in the right mental and technical place to do that.
The X Factor: Buckley’s physicality. He looks great at 170 pounds. And he is only 30 years old. Even if Covington can take him down with more technical wrestling, Buckley has the level of physicality to just say, “Get off me,” and explode.
Prediction: Buckley won. It’s hard for me to say he’ll finish Covington, because if Covington fights Buckley like he fought Edwards, it’s hard to finish someone who isn’t taking any risks. Covington needs to be aggressive to win, but if he’s too aggressive, he’s more likely to get knocked out.
Batting Analysis
As per the publication, the odds are correct. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Buckley to win (-290), over 1.5 rounds. This is a tough matchup for Covington. Not only has he not improved in any area of his game, but he also recently left his team and is mainly training on his own. Not the best situation when going up against a fighter like Buckley. We already know what Covington will do — move at breakneck speed and try to wrestle Buckley to a decision for five rounds. However, if we know this, so does Buckley. Buckley has good takedown defense, and with Covington’s lack of striking, I expect Buckley to cover the takedowns and keep this fight on the feet, where he will have the advantage. If you want to keep it simple, take the money line and make Buckley the anchor of your parlay. If you want better odds, take Buckley to win and over 1.5 rounds.
Parker’s best bets on the rest of the card
Light Heavy Weight: Waiter Petrino Vs Dustin Jacoby
Jacoby to win (+250). This bet is a value game, because I don’t think the odds mean anything. Petrino is coming off a first-round submission loss. Anthony Smithis still a 3-to-1 favorite over an experienced fighter who is a better striker. Jacoby is facing a knockout loss. Dominic Reyesbut Reyes is a much better fighter than Petrino and someone who has fought the best in the world. Jacoby is the more talented striker here with a more versatile game. I’ll take it over the money over Petrino’s power.
Women’s Flyweight: Miranda Maverick Vs Jamie Lynnworth
To win within wandering distance. No disrespect, but this will be the easiest match of Maverick’s UFC career so far. Nowhere in this fight is Horth better than Maverick, so I expect a dominant performance here. I don’t care that Horath only has one loss and she’s never finished, because she’s never fought at this level.
Strawweight: Josephine Knutson Vs Para Rodriguez
Knutsson to win (-240). More than likely, this is a win-or-go-home situation for Rodriguez. She suffered two losses in a row, where she ended up by submission and disqualified for headbutts — not the best look. Knutsson is much better on the feet and as good as Rodriguez on the ground. I would consider taking the Knutson moneyline as one leg of the parlay to avoid betting on the way to victory. However, if you want better odds, Knutsson would be the way to go depending on the decision.