Happy Rookie Sasaki Week!
After Declare your intention Set to arrive in MLB at the start of the 2024-25 offseason, the 23-year-old Japanese free agent immediately became the most coveted pitcher available this winter thanks to a combination of his talent and age, and the parameters of his contract. .
With the 2025 international free agent signing period opening on January 15 and Sasaki’s posting window closing on January 23, we can Find out where Sasaki is going. As soon as Wednesday.
Because Sasaki decided to come to the majors before his 25th birthday, he is limited to a minor league deal (capped at more than $7.5 million) with a signing bonus coming from the team’s international bonus pool. . This makes the rising star a rare free agent star that every team can afford to sign.
While we wait for Sasaki’s destination to come into focus, we asked our MLB experts what makes him so good, what major league pitchers he reminds of, and what teams are all for him. More likely than not.
Monday’s update: Sasaki plans to sign with both. Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres or Toronto Blue Jays Sometime next week or so, sources told ESPN, with a cadre of big-name teams informed in recent days that they are no longer under consideration.
What makes Sasaki such a coveted free agent?
Bradford Doolittle: He’s young, capable and with measurable tools that could make him one of baseball’s top prospects. But he’s not a “if he reaches his limit, he’ll probably be ‘X'” prospect, but someone who has already been successful in a high-level league can slide into the big league rotation. . A limited workload, for now, is the only thing really holding back Sasaki’s 2025 projection. With his full collection of team control seasons, there is no risk of signing him. And as good as he is now, he has room to grow in terms of his arsenal and how he fills out physically. You just don’t get a combination of all those factors, not the least of which is that Sasaki was so eager to make the leap that he was willing to make maximum earnings a secondary factor.
Buster Olney: As we have seen. Yoshinobu Yamamoto And with Juan Soto — as we’ve seen going all the way back to Alex Rodriguez — excellence at a young age is everything. Sasaki is expected to be a top-tier talent at age 23, and the team that lands him will have years of control while also paying him relative money.
Kelly McDaniel: In telling me this winter about his client’s potential nine-figure deal, one agent indicated why he was confident it would happen, even if he had a down year, by saying: ” Age is a hack.” Rosters are getting younger, so teams have more money to spend, but they don’t want to offer long-term deals to older players, so they’re (usually) looking for players with a year or two. Short-term free agents looking for deals or trades. of control. This means that long-term deals are generally acceptable to a large portion of teams when they can land a standout young star even in his prime years. (As the Red Sox pursue Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Juan Soto, extend Raphael Deversbut not offering huge sums to any older players). Sasaki can be in team control for his entire peak, at a price each team can afford: a true unicorn of a chance for all 30 teams.
David Schoenfeld: He’s entering his age-23 season and it’s safe to say he has the potential to be one of the best starters in baseball. In four years in Japan, he has a 2.02 ERA, averaging 11.4 strikeouts per nine. He has hit 102 mph and is 6-foot-3 and athletic. You could argue that he’s on Stephen Strasburg/Paul Skeens Scale as a pitching prospect, except he’s already dominated as a pro.
What current or former MLB pitcher does he remind you of on the mound?
Schoenfield: With his power fastball/splitter combo, I think of two former MLB greats: Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling. There are definitely some similarities too. Shohei Ohtanialthough Ohtani gradually reduced his use of his splitter and did not use it much in 2022-23, often going to his sweeper. In 2024 in Japan, Sasaki produced a 57% whiff rate on his splitter, which would have been second in MLB behind a Reds (now Yankees) reliever. Fernando Cruz.
Doolittle: I don’t know if there is one man. The divider kind of reminds me of one. Logan Gilbert Throw, a spin rate so low that it’s awkward to watch in slow motion. The easy, heavy, hard stuff he throws reminds me of Kevin Brown, just with a different fastball. What’s most interesting about Sasaki is that it’s hard to call him the next so-and-so. He’s his own thing, and novelty is a great and very rare thing in sports these days.
McDaniel: There is no perfect comp, and Sasaki is still evolving as a pitcher, so I’ll point out some players who have similar characteristics. Hunter Green There was a similar mix of arm speed and hype at the same age, along with some questions over the shape of his fastball and the quality of his breaking ball. Obviously, Sasaki’s standout splitter has numerous comps for former NPB pitchers but only a few American-born players, such as Clemens and Schilling. The total package (power fastball, slider, and splitter-ish off-speed pitch) is similar to that of Paul Skeens, although Sasaki’s command and fourth and fifth pitches are the areas where he can truly stand up to Skeens. will be needed. MLB debut.
Buster Olney: He reminds me. U Darvishwith his build and his colorful athleticism. He seems capable of making adjustments as needed. Darvish is known for being able to mimic the delivery of other pitchers, and given Sasaki’s movement, it wouldn’t surprise me if he had the same gift.
Are there any concerns about how his game will translate from Japan to MLB?
McDaniel: Sasaki’s fastball shape and velocity regressed last season, his slider speed has increased even more, he likely needs to add a fourth and perhaps fifth pitch, and his action in the strike zone is a bit off. Could be better. All of these are simple enough on their own to be resolved in the first half of 2025 by the time Sasaki chooses a strong pitching development club, as I suspect he will. Some mechanical adjustments and mental cues can carry a lot of weight because these things can all be interconnected. I’d expect to see glimpses of Sasaki’s potential in 2025 while we wait until 2026 for the first of a dominant string of five or six in a row.
First: We really need our teammate Eduardo Perez to jump in here, because he’ll be the one to tell us if Sasaki has something obvious like pitch tipping. That’s what Yamamoto experienced in his first months with the Dodgers. But Sasaki can have such great things that it doesn’t matter. His splitter looks so good that he will not be hit even if the batsman knows it is coming.
Doolittle: Well, the different ball means we don’t know exactly how the measurements will change on his pitches, but that’s not a big concern. He looked great in the World Baseball Classic, which offers a good preview of that adjustment. This is really sustainability. He never threw many innings, his best pitch is a splitter and his velocity was down last season. These things would be a lot more worrisome if he was getting a contract like Yamamoto, but he’s not. I’ve seen his splitter have an 80 grade and when you match that with the movement he has with a triple-digit fastball and the track record of plus command, health is the only thing to worry about. Need to do.
Schoenfield: Like every starter: health and durability. He topped out in 2022 in Japan with 20 starts and 129 innings. His fastball velocity was slightly off in 2024 as he missed time with a torn oblique and shoulder fatigue. He will also have to adjust to facing more power hitters in Japan.
Does his decision to beat the Dodgers team come close?
Doolittle: They always are.
McDaniel: They’re likely landing spots and have been seen as such for a while, but don’t underestimate how little we know about the process of ending Sasaki and ultimately choosing the club. We have some hints and possible tilts, but don’t really know much right now.
First: Sure, because they seem to land every player they want, along with a bottomless pit of money. The Dodgers will be the team to beat on and off the field for years.
Schoenfield: I’d say no. I’m betting Sasaki wants to make his own way and sign with a team that doesn’t already have Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Which other teams do you think have the best chance of landing him?
McDaniel: The Padres, led by their aggressive GMA Jay Preller, are considered the second most likely landing spot behind the Dodgers, and San Diego clearly needs more of Sasaki: He’s the vision for the entire franchise. Will change. Also, we’re guessing mostly from the teams we know he’s met with that seem like a good environment for Sasaki to develop and compete in meaningful games: the Giants, Mariners, The Mets, Yankees, Cubs and Rangers come up. Most but I can’t even say this is a complete list of teams that looks a long one.
Doolittle: For me, the Mets stand out. Sasaki and his representation have been rather vague when it comes to offering glimpses of his thinking, leading to a lot of reading between the lines. It’s a rarity for a player of his caliber to be able to pick any team he wants with money barely a part of the equation. So who knows? The Mets offer a good pitching environment, strong potential for sustained contention and a thriving pitching development program highlighted by a pitching lab built in Port St. Lucie. Why be another Dodger?
First: It’s clear that Sasaki isn’t afraid to defy conventional wisdom, just like Ohtani did after his arrival — he’s pushed to reach the majors now, rather than just waiting. Tens of millions of dollars were passed. With that in mind, I think the Padres would be the most interesting alternative to the Dodgers, because of the weather, Darvish’s presence and the opportunity to play against the best in the same division.
Schoenfield: If Sasaki is primarily concerned with his development as a pitcher, what better place than Seattle? Unlike the Dodgers, the Mariners have kept their young starters healthy. They also play in a great pitcher’s park, they play on the West Coast and it’s not like Seattle doesn’t have a chance to win. But we haven’t heard much about the Mariners joining the race.