China’s trade surplus widened to a record last year as companies scrambled to meet weak demand at home and to bring in goods ahead of the president-elect’s return. Donald Trump to the White House.
According to a statement from the customs administration on Monday, the surplus in 2024 was $992 billion. This was 21% higher than the previous year and was driven by record exports and weaker imports.
Shipping prices rose nearly every month last year, pushing them above 2022 highs during the pandemic. Strong demand from abroad has helped fuel growth for a domestic economy that has struggled with a persistent housing crisis and weak consumption, although that support now faces external challenges.
Exports rose nearly 11 percent to $336 billion in December, the second-highest month on record and behind only December 2021, when Chinese firms saw a surge in demand led by the pandemic. Outbound shipments were worth $3.6 trillion last year.
Imports rose 1% last month and 1.1% for the full year.
What Bloomberg Economics Says…
“Looking ahead to the coming months, we expect tariff-driven front-loading to continue to boost exports, as seen earlier. US China trade war“
David Keough, Economist
It could be one of the last high points for Chinese trade, at least directly with the U.S., with Trump promising more tariffs on Chinese goods when he takes office next week. Punitive tariffs could force Chinese firms to divert their exports, flood other markets with cheaper goods and exacerbate trade tensions.
“Exporters anticipated a trade war likely in 2025 and pushed up deliveries to avoid higher tariffs down the road,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. “The key issue to watch in the coming weeks is the policies in Washington, DC, and the policy response from Beijing.”
Exports to the US hit their highest level in more than two years in December, reaching nearly $49 billion and totaling $525 billion for the year.
Despite record shipments of goods, Chinese exporters are getting less money for their products, with export prices falling for more than a year as inflation inside China worsens and commodity prices rise. I decrease. As a result, growth in the volume of Chinese trade has outpaced value, with total export volumes up 7.3 percent through November, faster than the 5.4 percent rise in values, according to the Transport Ministry.
This can be seen in the port of Shanghai, which last year became the first in the world to handle the equivalent of more than 50 million 20-foot shipping containers. The port processed 51.5 million boxes last year, about 5% more than in 2023 and 19% more than in 2019, the year before the pandemic.