China’s population declined for the third year in a row in 2024, with deaths outstripping a slight increase in births, and experts warn that the trend will accelerate in the coming years.
The total number of people in China will decrease by 1.39 million to 1.408 billion in 2024, compared to 1.409 billion in 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics said.
Friday’s data bolstered concerns that the world’s second-largest economy will struggle with a shrinking number of workers and consumers. Rising costs from elder care and retirement benefits are also likely to put additional pressure on already indebted local governments.
The total number of births in China was 9.54 million, up from 9.02 million in 2023, the Bureau of Statistics said. The birth rate increased from 6.77 per 1,000 people in 2024 to 6.39 per 1,000 people in 2023.
The number of deaths in 2024 was 10.93 million compared to 11.1 million in 2023.
China’s birth rate has been falling for decades as a result of China’s one-child policy from 1980 to 2015, as well as rapid urbanization.
As in neighboring Japan and South Korea, large numbers of Chinese residents have moved from rural farms to cities, where it is more expensive to have children.
The high cost of childcare and education, as well as job uncertainty and a sluggish economy, have discouraged many young Chinese from marrying and starting families.
Demographers say gender discrimination and traditional expectations of women to take care of the home exacerbate the problem.
“Much of China’s population decline is rooted in underlying structural causes: Without fundamental structural changes—from expanding the social safety net to eliminating gender discrimination—the population decline trend cannot be reversed,” said Yun Zhao, assistant professor of sociology at the University of Michigan.
Demographers said a 12.4 percent increase in marriages in 2023 — many delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic — led to an increase in births in 2024, but the number is expected to decline again in 2025. .
Marriages are an important indicator of fertility in China, where many single women cannot access the benefits of raising children.
Officials unveiled a series of measures to boost China’s birth rate in 2024.
In December, he urged colleges and universities to include marriage and “love education” in their curricula to emphasize positive ideas about marriage, love, fertility and family.
In November, the State Council, or Cabinet, called on local governments to address China’s population crisis and promote respect for “right-age” childbearing and marriage.
The number of Chinese women of reproductive age, defined by the United Nations as 15 to 49, will drop by two-thirds to less than 100 million by the end of this century.
The retirement-age population, meanwhile, those aged 60 and over, is expected to exceed 400 million by 2035, up from about 280 million people now.
China’s state-run Academy of Sciences has said that the pension system will end by 2035.
According to the data, about 22 percent of China’s population, or 310.31 million people, will be 60 years or older in 2024, compared to 296.97 million in 2023.
The number of people living in cities increased from 10.83 million to 943.3 million with rapid urbanization. During this period, the rural population decreased to 464.78 million.