Ottawa: Although no final decision has been made, Canada’s prime minister is likely to step down as the country’s prime minister, a source familiar with the prime minister’s thinking has said.
The Prime Minister has been under increasing pressure to resign since Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned over a policy clash.
Trudeau’s departure would leave the party without a permanent leader at a time when polls show the Liberals will lose badly to the official opposition Conservatives in elections due by the end of October.
Amid the growing political crisis, let’s examine possible ways forward for the country:
What will happen if the Prime Minister resigns?
If Trudeau resigns, the Liberals will name an interim leader to take over as prime minister while the party holds a special leadership convention.
The challenge for the party is that these conventions usually take months to organize and if an election is held before then, the Liberals will be in the hands of a prime minister not chosen by the members.
This has never happened in Canada. Liberals could try to run a smaller convention than usual, but that could lead to protests from candidates who felt it hurt them.
There is no way Freeland will be named Prime Minister on a permanent basis immediately because tradition dictates that the interim leader does not choose a candidate to lead the party.
Losing party leadership?
Unlike in the UK, where party leaders are elected by a parliamentary caucus and can be quickly removed, the Liberal leader is elected by a special convention of members.
So there is no formal party mechanism to remove Trudeau if he wants to stay.
That said, if a large number of his cabinet members and lawmakers call for him to go, he may conclude that his position is untenable.
What can Parliament do?
Canadian governments must demonstrate that they have confidence in the elected chamber of the House of Commons. Votes on the budget and other spending are considered measures of confidence, and if a government loses, it falls. In virtually all cases, campaigning begins immediately.
The House of Commons closes for the winter break in December and does not return until January 27. Motions on any matter including no confidence
Assuming the government allocates opposition days at the end of the session, the most likely time for Trudeau would be in the last 10 days of March. This will trigger elections sometime in May.
Other methods of impeachment of the Prime Minister
Ultimate constitutional power in Canada rests with Governor General Mary Simon, the personal representative of King Charles, head of state. She could unseat Trudeau in theory, but not in real life.
Philippe Lagasse, a professor and constitutional expert at Ottawa’s Carleton University, said the governor general would not fire a prime minister who still had the confidence of the Commons.
Trudeau’s options
Trudeau could suspend Parliament, which would officially end the current session and give him breathing space.
Under this scenario, the return of the House would be delayed by several weeks, allowing the government to unveil a new plan for how it intends to run the country.
That would have the advantage of delaying any no-confidence motion, but it could further anger Liberal lawmakers, especially if Trudeau was still prime minister.