Before the impending ban, TikTok creators asked fans to find them on Instagram or YouTube.

But Nader, now 21, started taking his videos seriously in April of that year, his TikTok account blowing up. With over half a million followers, he was able to generate enough income through brand sponsorships and his share of ad revenue that he quit his coffee shop gig and got his own apartment.

“It’s my 9-to-5 job,” Nader, who makes between $1,000 and $12,000 a month as a creator, told CNBC. “This is what I do for a living. This is how I pay for my groceries. This is how millions of small businesses make their money.”

However, Nadir’s new reality is not stable. TikTok, which is owned by China’s ByteDance, is nearing its January 19 deadline. is sold, or faces embargo. Like many other creators in the US who have come to rely on TikTok, Nader is urging his fans to find him on other social media apps before he potentially loses them entirely. Give and a large stream of income they represent.

“Not at all. My TikTok The following is coming, and it’s really sad,” Nader said.

The TikTok threat has been around for years, but was then amplified in April. President Joe Biden Signed a Law Which requires ByteDance to remove the short-form video app this month. If ByteDance fails to sell TikTok on time, apple And Google They will be forced by law to ensure that their platforms no longer support the app in the US.

President Elect Donald Trumpwho supported a ban on TikTok during his first administration, has since flip-flopped on the issue. Late last month, he Emphasized The Supreme Court should step in and force a delay in enforcing Biden’s ban to give him time to find a “political solution.” It is inaugurated on January 20.

Trump’s rhetoric on Tik Tok began to change after him Met in February. Along with billionaire Jeff Yass, a Republican megadonor and a major investor in Byte Dance who Social truthTrump’s social media company.

The Supreme Court Hear oral arguments. On January 10 from both sides. During the more than two-hour session, the justices questioned TikTok’s lead attorney about the app’s relationship with China and seemed generally unsatisfied with TikTok’s main argument, that the law would harm its millions of users. Violates free speech rights. of individual users in the United States

Internet advocacy group of businessman Frank McCourt on Thursday Project Liberty announced that it has proposed to buy TikTok from ByteDance. Calling it “the people’s bid for TikTok”, the group said it would rebuild the app on the US-owned platform and prioritize users’ digital security, although it did not disclose the terms of its bid. what is

A decision may come at some point. Nader isn’t waiting for a resolution to figure out what’s next.

He is currently downloading four or five of his TikTok videos every day to save them as he uploads his content of meta Instagram Reels and of the alphabet YouTube shorts. After downloading the videos, Nader re-edits them, optimizing the clips for each app.

“It took me over a year and a half to build the following I have now on TikTok to make it my full-time job,” Nader said. “Now it’s about rebuilding that whole brand on another platform, which is not ideal.”

Nader said he is not making any money from the reels or shorts yet.

Denisha Carter, 27, is also in the same place. A resident of Los Angeles, Carter has been a full-time creator since 2021, posting social commentary and lifestyle videos. Although she had known about the TikTok ban for months, she said she got a wake-up call in the middle of the night in November.

“I needed to start taking this seriously before I lost access to the platform and followers that I had built,” Carter recalled of his panicked feeling. “I shouldn’t waste any more time.”

Carter, who previously worked in luxury retail, is gone. His TikTok videos By letting your followers know they can find you on YouTube, Instagram, and Patreon.

“It’s not just some stupid app that people are using to post dance videos,” said Carter, who earns an average of $4,000 per month from her TikTok activity. “It’s been remarkable in terms of changing people’s lives, changing people’s businesses.”

TikTok may still find a way to remain operational in the US, but if the app is suspended, YouTube, Facebook and Instagram stand to be the biggest winners in the aftermath, experts say.

According to the market intelligence firm, TikTok has about 115 million monthly active users in the U.S., behind YouTube’s 258 million and Facebook’s 253 million. Sensor tower. Instagram has 131 million. Data from Sensor Tower shows that short videos, similar to clips on TikTok, are gaining viewership in these apps, accounting for about 41% of user time on Instagram.

Although TikTok has a smaller user base in the US and a smaller share of total advertising dollars than its top competitors, it remains the dominant platform for creators, particularly those focused on short-form content.

Influencer marketing platform HyperAuditor boasts a creator with over 1,000 subscribers. TikTok has about 8.5 million people in the U.S. who fit into that category, compared to about 5.2 million on Instagram and 1.1 million on YouTube, according to HyperAuditor.

Meanwhile, according to Sensor Tower, TikTok accounts for 9% of digital ad spending on social media platforms in the US, compared to 31% for Facebook, 25% for Instagram and 21% for YouTube.

Should TikTok go, “it’s potentially billions of dollars up in the air for competitors,” Sensor Tower told CNBC in an email. Emarketer It is estimated that Meta and YouTube could take half of the reallocated dollars if the ban goes into effect.

This kind of market transformation has happened elsewhere. India bans TikTok In June 2020, when the app had around 150 million monthly users in the country. A year later, Instagram’s monthly active users in India had grown by 20 percent, while YouTube users grew by 11 percent year-on-year, according to Sensor Tower estimates.

“That’s when we saw the biggest jump in Rails usage ever,” said Meghna Dhar, a former Instagram executive who was at the company at the time of the India ban. “Should TikTok be banned and creators have to fight between YouTube shorts and Instagram, many creators are already placing their bets.”

In Meta, leaders within Instagram held several impromptu meetings Friday after hearing oral arguments before the Supreme Court, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC. While many within the company had long expected TikTok to remain active in the U.S., Instagram leaders began instructing their teams to prepare for a possible influx of users if the ban were lifted. , said the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity for privacy reasons. .

Christina Nolan, vice president of media services at marketing agency DMi Partners, said TikTok’s situation is the latest example of why social media creators should always diversify their following.

“We’re constantly reminding them to build audience depth on other platforms,” ​​said Nolan, whose agency works with more than 50,000 creatives.

Nolan said that in recent weeks, DMi has seen more of its creators reach out to their followers in different ways. Transfer has started. But they have to be careful. Nolan said some creators fear TikTok will “shadow ban” them, or reduce their exposure to users, if Technology recognizes that they are promoting profiles elsewhere.

Some creators will advise followers to find them on “fbook,” for example, instead of writing Facebook. Nolan said others will use enough words to convey messages to their followers, hoping to avoid detection on TikTok. Some creators are teaming up with brands to incentivize consumers by rewarding them. gifts For users who follow him on other apps, he added.

“They’re clearly not saying, ‘Come on Instagram,'” Nolan said. “They’re like, ‘Go follow me,’ and they’re talking about it.”

Even with a number of other options for finding a larger audience, creators are concerned about trying to rebuild their business and having enough followers migrate with them.

“What’s going to happen is going to happen, and we’re just going to make the most of it,” said Nellie Buschma, 27, of Los Angeles, who has been living as a full-time creator since 2022. ” That’s how I see it, so I don’t panic.”

Despite the potential upheaval, Buschma said she sees the possible ban as an opportunity to expand her career and be more creative.

Bushma started making TikTok videos After quitting his job working on a horse farm, he chose to live off his savings while experimenting as a creative. Buschma’s bet on himself paid off and he earned enough to live in Los Angeles, paying for his own place and a car.

Now she’s making sure her TikTok fans see links to her other profiles so they can find her on other apps, including YouTube. If the ban is lifted, Buschma said she plans to make a video specifically asking her fans to follow her.

This is bound to grow considerably, as she currently has 2 million TikTok followers compared to just 278,000 on YouTube. But Bushma said she’s going to try her hand at making long-form videos, something she’s always wanted to explore.

“Whether TikTok goes or not, I think something will work,” Buschma said. “I’ll find my footing in other places, like I did on TikTok.”

Look: Kristof & Company CEO Nikki Kristof says the Supreme Court will likely uphold the ban on TikTok.