As pressure mounts on Hamas and Israel, hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza are rising.

An outline of a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal has been on the table since May during indirect talks between Israel and Hamas in Doha. So why is there renewed hope that it will work after the war has been frozen for eight months?

There are many things that have changed – both politically and on the ground.

The first is the election of Donald Trump as US President.

He threatened that “all hell” would break loose. If the hostages are not released before taking office on January 20.

Hamas may well read that the weak brakes the Biden administration has tried to rein in the Israeli government will be lifted, though it is hard to imagine what that might mean for a region that has previously It has been shattered by 15 months of war. .

Israel is also feeling pressure from the incoming president to end the Gaza conflict, undermining Trump’s hopes of securing a broader regional deal and his desired image as a war-stopping president. There is a risk of interference.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on the other hand, is under constant pressure from his far-right allies to continue the war.

But Trump could also be an asset in convincing his allies to swallow the deal and stay in government. The new US president, and the man he has chosen as Israeli ambassador, is seen as a supporter of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, led by Israel’s far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smutrich. He has said that he wants to join..

But after meeting the prime minister last night, Smutrich appeared unsatisfied, writing on social media that the current deal was “catastrophic” for Israel’s national security and that he would not support it.

Although some in Israel believe that Smutrich and his far-right ally, National Security Minister Atmar Ben Gower, see their current role in Israel’s government as their best chance to consolidate control over the West Bank. There are, especially with the return of Trump. White House, and that they are unlikely to follow through on threats to leave.

The other thing that has changed is the increasing pressure on Netanyahu from his own military establishment.

Key figures are widely reported to have repeatedly challenged Hamas on its dwindling military goals for continuing the war following the death of senior leadership and the destruction of Gaza.

Last week, 10 Israeli soldiers were killed in Gaza, shedding new light on the cost of the war to Israel, and on the perennial question of whether the “total victory” over Hamas that Netanyahu has promised is achievable. .

Some analysts now believe that Hamas is rebuilding faster than Israel is defeating it and that Israel needs to rethink its strategy.

And a third – regional – change is at play here as well in shifting expectations: the weakening and erosion of Hamas’s allies. Iran’s “Axis of Resistance”From Hezbollah in Lebanon to Bashar al-Assad in Syria, with the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza.

For all these reasons, now is seen as the best opportunity in months to bridge the gap between Israel and Hamas and end the war.

What hasn’t changed in the eight months since they last spoke is the difference between them.

Key among them is the direct confrontation between the key concern of Hamas, which wants to end the war, and Israel, which wants to keep the door open to restarting the conflict, whether for political or military reasons.

deal, As stated by President Joe Biden in May.has been divided into three phases, with the permanent ceasefire in force only in the second phase.

Success will now depend on whether guarantees can be found to allay Hamas fears that Israel will pull out of the deal after the first phase of hostage releases.

How to manage the territory from which Israel withdraws is also unclear at this stage.

But diplomatic nets have been expanding in the region over the past week, and the fact that Netanyahu has sent Israel’s security chiefs, along with a key political adviser, to the talks in Doha are encouraging signs. .

Similarly, Palestinian prisoners of war coordinator Qudura Faris is also leaving for Doha.

The deal isn’t done yet – and talks have already broken down.

The old agreement is fueling fresh hopes in part because negotiations are taking place in a new regional context, with increasing pressure from key allies at home and abroad.