Arctic development freezes despite Trump interest

The Arctic recently hit the headlines after Donald Trump reiterated his desire to buy Greenland. Trump cited national security interests, but for many the area’s vast mineral wealth is the focus. Yet elsewhere in the vast Arctic region, economic growth has stalled.

At this time of year, working conditions in the Arctic Ocean are extremely difficult for Norwegian fisherman Sondre Alnes Bonismo.

The sun rose for the last time in late October, and doesn’t appear in the sky again until mid-February.

Apart from the endless darkness, temperatures can drop below minus 40C, and storms can bring huge waves.

Mr. Alanis Bonissimo, 30, works two six-hour shifts a day during five-week tours on the Granite. One of the largest factory trawlers fishing the Arctic waters north of Norway, and off the coast of Greenland, it doesn’t stop in winter.

Not surprisingly, he prefers the endless summer daylight. “I like it when the weather is good, because we’re not sent crashing into walls and such, like we are during storms, when the waves can be quite big,” he smiles sheepishly.

Mr Alnes-Bonesmo is involved in the so-called Arctic “cold rush”.

A play on gold rush words, it began around 2008 when a series of reports identified vast mineral and hydrocarbon reserves in the Arctic region. Reservoirs that combine with large fishing stocks may become more accessible as climate change reduces ice levels.

This reduction in snow is also increasing rapidly. opened arctic sea lanes, Canadian territory and north of Russia.

So much so that, in the decade from 2013 to 2023, the total annual distance traveled by ships in the Arctic Ocean More than double 6.1 million to 12.9 million miles.

In the long term, the hope is that cargo ships can travel from Asia to Europe and the East Coast of the United States through Arctic waters over Canada and Russia.

But the question Mr. Alanis Bonissimo now asks himself is this – did he arrive too late?

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, much of the planned economic development of the Arctic region stalled as relations between Russia and the West soured.

“Russia had very good plans in the Arctic,” says Morton Mjlander Larsen, director of Arctic operations and technology at Norwegian firm DNV. His company sets norms and standards for the maritime sector.

“They began building regional rescue centers complete with ships and helicopters to facilitate both destination deliveries to gas, oil and coal projects in Siberia, as well as shipping along the Northeast Passage. [north of Russia].

“[But] “Since the invasion of Ukraine, international shipping in the Northeast Passage has come to a standstill, except for a few Chinese ships,” observes Mr. Mjlander Larsen.

He added that Norway has also stopped oil and gas exploration in the region. “It’s completely stopped,” he says.

“We do not expect to see further developments in the Barents Sea north of Bear Island.” This small Norwegian island is about 400 km (250 mi) north of the Norwegian mainland.

Norway’s laid-back ambitions in the Arctic have pleased environmentalists who have consistently warned about the impact of hydrocarbon drilling on both wildlife and the Arctic’s fragile environment.

Last month, Greenpeace welcomed the Norwegian government’s decision. Stop the first round of licensing. for deep-sea mining in the Arctic waters between Norway’s Svalbard and Jan Mayen Islands.

While strained relations with Russia are a key reason Norway is wary of investing in Arctic projects, its interest in the polar region has already cooled, observers say.

Helene Tofte, director of international cooperation and climate at the Norwegian Shipowners Association, says the outlook for shipping in the Arctic has been “exaggerated”.

She explains that despite the effects of climate change, the Arctic is a difficult place to work. “Conditions in the Arctic can be extremely difficult, even when the absence of sea ice allows passage,” she says.

“Large stretches of road are far from emergency response capabilities, such as search and rescue, and environmental cleanup resources.

“Increased shipping in this area will require significant investment in vessels, emergency preparedness, infrastructure, and weather forecasting systems, for a route that is unpredictable and has a short operational season. Interesting.”

Mr Mjlander Larsen points to the belief that “thanks to global warming there will be summers. It never will. If it’s minus 40 degrees Celsius and it gets 3 degrees Celsius higher, it’s still not hot.” is.”

Additionally, Professor Erld Moe from the Norwegian research group Fridtjof Nansen Institute says the entire Arctic cold rush was based on exaggerated assumptions. “Excitement was high,” says an expert in oil and gas exploration in the region.

“What the 2008 reports referred to were not actual reserves, but potential and highly uncertain resources, which would be risky, expensive, and difficult to find and exploit.”

Regarding Trump’s renewed interest in the self-governing Danish territory of Greenland, Greenlandic and Danish officials once again quickly responded that it was Not for sale.

Prof Mo says Trump’s “poor and undiplomatic statement” shows that the US under Trump is looking after both security and economic interests in the island, including its “rich mineral resources”.

The Danish government also announced a huge increase in retaliation. Defense expenditure For Greenland

Elsewhere in the Arctic, there is Trump. Permission is expected. Increased oil and gas exploration in Alaska, particularly in the resource-rich Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

This 19 million acre area is the largest wildlife refuge in the United States, and in 2020 Trump authorized drilling in part of it.

Meanwhile, Canada continues To build a deep water port At Gray Bay, on the north coast of Nunavut, its northernmost point. Gray Bay is roughly at the center of the so-called Northwest Passage, an Arctic seaway north of the Canadian mainland.

Back on the grant fishing vessel, Mr Alnes-Bonesmo says that, while he has made good money, fishing quotas continue to be cut to try to preserve stocks in Norwegian Arctic waters.

Yet he is philosophical. “After a few years at sea I’ve grown more in awe of the Arctic Ocean, but I’ve also come to respect and appreciate it for all its power and beauty.”