The 2024 PFL season concludes Friday afternoon in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, with playoff finals in each of the six weight classes.
All PFL World Championship contests at King Saud University Stadium will be on ESPN+, beginning at 1 p.m. ET.
One of the 12 finalists is the defending champion (Ampa Kisanganelight heavyweight) and last season’s winner (Brandon Loganfeather weight in 2022). two undefeated, Shamal Musayev And Magomed Umalatovmeet in the welterweight final, and there are two other undefeated fighters on the card (featherweight Timur Khadrif and women’s flyweight Dakota Dacheva). Also a former Bellator champion, lightweight Brent Primusand a one-time UFC title challenger, flyweight Taila Santos.
ESPN betting expert Ian Parker breaks down the six championship fights and offers a betting guide, and Jeff Wagenheim breaks down the storylines of the fight card, starting with the first fight of the day and working his way through the card.
Fights are more likely to be short and sweet.
Heavyweight Championship: Dennis Goltsoff Vs Oleg Popov
It might be nice to think it’s over quickly, because heavyweight contests that go a round or more can make you think your TV has switched to slo-mo. But Goltsov (35-8) is A fast worker. He has won eight of his last nine fights, and six of those wins have come by first round finish. Popov (19-1) is resilient — he hasn’t had a career stoppage loss — but he will be pushed from the opening bell.
Parker’s Best Bets: Over 1.5 Rounds; The fight doesn’t go away. Is this the year Goltsov finally reaches the finish line? To do that, he needs to land an early KO on Popov. Otherwise, he’ll be in for a tough wrestling match against someone who doesn’t tire. I think Popov’s durability and wrestling ability will keep Golstov at bay and take this fight deeper than expected. I don’t see him doing all five rounds. If more than 1.5 is being offered, I’ll lean into that play.
Possibly fight to do some ground work — or not.
Lightweight Championship: Brent Primus Vs Gadzi Rabadanov
More than half of Primus’ victories have come by submission — eight of 15 wins by tapout. The former Bellator champion (15-3) clearly feels comfortable on the canvas, and so does Rabadanov (23-4-2). The Dagestanis had to cultivate this comfort in order to survive at Abdul Manap Nurmagomedov’s Makhachkala gym, where Rabadanov trained among wrestling’s elite. Of course, sometimes wrestling can take some getting used to. to stop The fight from reaching the canvas.
Parker’s best bet: Rabadanov wins by KO/TKO. Primus have swept all their opponents so far in the PFL season, but I believe that streak will end in the finals. Primus is a fantastic grappler, but tends to gas as the fight goes on. And against Rabadanov, I think he will struggle to get the fight to the floor early. Look for Rabadanov to keep the fight on the feet and get knockouts in the later rounds.
You fight the most to go ‘Oh, no!’
Welterweight Championship: Shamal Musaev vs. Magomed Amlaatov
The above exclamation does not suggest that this contest will bring a terrible disappointment. It’s not “oh” at all, just a word that sounds like it: “0,” as in zero. Musaev is 19-0-1, and Umalatov is 17-0. A matchup between two fighters with zero losses means that, barring a draw (which will do An “Oh, no!” Hey, someone’s going to end the night without a “0” on their record.
Parker’s Best Bet: Over 3.5 Rounds; Musaev from the decision. It will come down to whether Amalatov can use his wrestling in the first three rounds. If he can, his +200 odds as an underdog are extremely pleasing. However, I think Musaev will defend the takedowns and win a great battle on his feet. Look to get Over or Musif by decision to get better value on this fight.
Fight the most likely to go all the way.
Light Heavyweight Championship: Impa Kasangane Vs. Dulet Yegshimuradov
Defending champion Kasangane (18-4), one of a dozen finalists, has won two of his three fights this season by knockout. But over the course of his career, he’s had as many decisions as finishes. Yagshimuradov (24-7-1) is the opposite. He has 13 knockouts and four submissions in his 24-win career, but most of his recent fights — four of his last five — have gone the distance. Will it go down in the hands of the judges, or will someone come up with something game-changing?
Parker’s best bet: Yegshimuradov to win (+140). With his semi-final win over the 2022 champion Rob WilkinsonYegshimradov proved why he is a dark horse to be taken seriously. He has excellent wrestling, good cardio and is an absolute powerhouse on the feet. If he can stay off his back, I think his power might best Kasangane. The 2023 champion has unlimited cardio, which can cause problems for any opponent, but he has been caught on the feet in all three of his fights this season. against Jacob Neduh In June, he was almost back on his feet and needed a miraculous come-from-behind KO victory to make the playoffs. If he gets caught by Yegshimradov, I don’t think Kasangane will be able to come back.
Fight the most likely to tell the future.
Women’s Flyweight Championship: Dakota Dacheva vs. Tayla Santos
Ditcheva could emerge as a star from Friday. The word “can” is of course double-edged, as it leaves room for the possible to reach. But Dacheva (13-0) hasn’t just defeated everyone he’s faced, he’s dominated every one of them, the first round in all but one of his eight PFL bouts. I have achieved success. She’s never been tested, though, by Santos (22-3), who challenged just two years ago. Valentina Shevchenko for the UFC title. This fight should tell us a lot about what’s next for Dacheva.
Parker’s best bet: Santos (+280) to win. Ditcheva has been flawless this season, and with another victory she could become the next big star in women’s MMA. Standing in his way is his toughest challenge yet. On the feet, you have to lean Dacheva’s way, but I wouldn’t say too much because he hasn’t competed like Santos. On the ground, Santos has a big advantage and it would be wise to fight there to take the path of least resistance. As incredible as Ditcheva has been — and I’m sure she’ll be a star one day, win or lose — I’m taking Santos at +280. She’s more than capable of competing on the feet, and if she can impose her will with wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Santos could steal rounds and potentially collect a blue-chip prospect. .
Fight the fireworks most likely.
Featherweight Championship: Brandon Lunane vs. Timur Khazref
Honestly, Ditcheva-Santos is the competition Mostly These fireworks are likely to ignite, but we can’t just dwell on that over and over again, can we? And the PFL has slotted this fight as the main event for a reason. Loughnane (30-5), the champion for the 2022 season, has earned knockouts in more than half of his wins (17). Adding Khazrif to that list of victories is a tough task, as he is 17-0 and doesn’t miss many opportunities. Let’s see how Loughnane closes the show.
Parker’s best bet: Over 4.5 rounds. Loughnane absolutely needs to keep this fight on his feet and avoid Khudzref’s suffocating fight. If he can turn this into a kickboxing fight, he gives himself a good chance to win. However, that’s easier said than done when you’re facing a talented grappler. Both men are extremely durable and high IQ fighters, so I expect this fight to be competitive from bell to bell. Whoever wins, I’m sure it will be by decision, so handle it. If that number is too expensive, struggle to distance yourself for a better number.