PARIS: More than half the world’s population will vote in the 2024 elections, leaving many liberal democracies facing crises of confidence, political fragmentation and growing polarization, leading some observers to a new wind in the sails of authoritarianism. is afraid of
The bumper election year was headlined by November’s election in the United States, democracy’s self-described “shining city on a hill,” where Donald Trump emerged victorious.
Many post-vote analyzes have focused on the economic motivations for the public’s rejection of Democratic Party incumbents.
Trump’s repeated threats to undermine the rule of law have also done little to discourage voters.
Republicans have vowed to bring back a justice system that has been the subject of numerous investigations and lawsuits, punishing hostile media outlets and even naming government employees based on their ideological allegiances. .
Political scientist Larry Diamond wrote in Foreign Affairs that if Trump does everything he says, “America will see the most severe assault on checks and balances and civil liberties in its peacetime history.”
Polarized and scattered
“We are living through a dangerous moment, not only in the United States but in many other places,” said Max Bergman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). AFP.
For the past two decades, the Western democratic model that was installed since 1945 and strengthened after the collapse of the Soviet bloc after 1989.
The US-based organization Freedom House has highlighted increasing violence and suspected or confirmed manipulation during several elections around the world.
Elsewhere, some so-called “hybrid” systems saw powerful incumbents maintain their positions but face determined, organized and new opposition.
India’s Narendra Modi and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan suffered setbacks in the legislative and local elections respectively.
Even in more competitive democratic systems, such as in Europe, “we are seeing increasingly polarized and fragmented politics”, Bergman said.
Germany’s governing coalition between the Social Democrats, Greens and Liberals collapsed this month, with little clarity on what the new government will look like after new elections in February.
And in the neighboring Netherlands, a fragile four-party coalition is battling internal divisions as it tries to stay afloat after the previous government’s 2023 deadline.
France, where monolithic parties of left and right have taken turns in power for decades, has also seen its political landscape fragment since centrist Emmanuel Macron became president in 2017.
Its surprise election in the summer has produced a parliament almost evenly split between three blocs – a united left, centre-right and far-right.
Efforts at reform have been paralyzed by backstabbing from all sides on almost every issue.
‘stop change’
Bertrand Bedi, an international relations expert at France’s Université Sciences Po, said the unstable state of Western democracies can be explained by “a crisis of confidence in political parties and the media that has not been seen since 1945”.
He added that voters were reacting to “a drought on offer in politics”.
“What were Macron or Kamala Harris offering in France or the US other than preventing their rivals – Trump or the far right led by Marine Le Pen – from gaining power? This creates a major problem with legitimacy.”
Defection to traditional parties and incumbents has increased the appeal of populist and far-right parties.
They made big gains in June’s European elections, as seen in votes in Germany, France, the Netherlands, as well as Italy and Hungary before 2024.
Many voters are choosing politicians who promise tougher action on issues including immigration and purchasing power.
Personality is also very important, with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Trump managing to project impregnable authority.
“The world and societies are undergoing a major transformation,” said Gilles Grisani, head of the French geopolitical magazine Lee. Concerned about changes.” The Great Continent.
“As a result, there is an increasingly strong demand to prevent change – and because it seems so unlikely, the delusional temptation to retreat behind national borders,” he added.